3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Monday 7/11/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Alex Cobb, P, Giants ($8,400)
Alex Cobb continues to stand out as a value play, because his salary doesn't line up with his underlying metrics.
For the season, Cobb boasts a 3.04 SIERA, 24.1% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate. It's rare for us to get access to numbers of that caliber for a salary this low.
Of course, the results haven't been there for Cobb or he wouldn't be salaried at this level. But his 4.74 ERA is ballooned by an unlucky .348 BABIP and lowly 56.9% strand rate. The BABIP is the fourth-highest among hurlers with at least 50 innings pitched, and the strand rate is the lowest among that group.
Cobb can post a good score versus the Arizona Diamondbacks, an offense that is just 26th in wOBA (.300) this season with the 11th-highest strikeout rate (23.2%). He also benefits from this game being at Oracle Park, which has the third-lowest park factor for dongs.
Arizona's 3.38 implied total is the slate's second-lowest, and Cobb's salary is super handy if you want to stack Coors. We project him for 29.4 FanDuel points.
Seth Brown, 1B/OF, Athletics ($2,200)
If you want to roster a stud pitcher and pluck some high-salary bats from Coors, you'll have to find a couple of value sticks.
Enter Seth Brown.
The Oakland Athletics haven't been on the stacking radar much this year, but you can make a case for them today -- at least for one-offs and mini-stacks. They're taking on Spencer Howard, a righty who has been tagged for 1.94 dingers per nine since the start of 2021. Lefties have a 45.6% fly-ball rate against Howard for his career.
Brown will hit from the left side, and while his .323 wOBA with the platoon advantage this season is an underwhelming mark, he's posted an enticing batted-ball profile (37.0 hard-hit rate and 46.8% fly-ball rate). His multi-position eligibility is a plus, too.
Our model has Brown pegged for 13.0 FanDuel points and rates him as the slate's number-one point-per-dollar bat.
Brad Miller, 3B/OF, Rangers ($2,100)
On the flip side of the above game, Brad Miller stands out as another sweet value option.
Miller is taking on right-hander Adrian Martinez. The Oakland rookie has punched out only 16.7% of hitters through his initial 15 MLB frames. Lefties have struck out just 10.3% of the time, although we're obviously dealing with tiny samples.
Oddsmakers like the Texas Rangers to rough up Martinez as Texas is showing a 4.76 implied total, the top non-Coors clip of the night.
Miller pretty much plays only versus righties, and he's amassed a 40.2% fly-ball rate in the split this campaign. The rest of the numbers haven't been there in 2022, but a year ago, Miller registered a .359 wOBA and 44.8% hard-hit rate in the split.
We project Miller for 11.0 FanDuel points and have him as the second-best point-per-dollar hitter among those with a salary under $3,000.
