FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 6/28/22
We've got our work cut out for us on Tuesday's 14-game slate, and a quick glance at the list of starting pitchers shows how deep the player pool is tonight. It's also another Coors Field night, and despite a massive letdown on Monday, the Los Angeles Dodgers lead the way on offense yet again.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Carlos Rodon ($10,600): Following a blazing hot start to the season, Rodon cooled off a bit in late May and early June, but he's really ramped things up again of late. The left-hander has allowed just one earned run across his last three starts while recording at least eight strikeouts in each, helping him to 52, 58, and 52 FanDuel points.
For the season, Rodon now sports a 3.15 SIERA, 31.3% strikeout rate, and 8.7% walk rate, and while it would be nice to see fewer free passes, it's hard to nitpick those numbers much.
But what really boosts Rodon above all comers tonight is a matchup versus the Tigers. While Detroit's lineup should feature a slew of righties, they're still a below-average offense against left-handers and check in with a slate-low 2.98 implied total. Rodon shouldn't miss a beat against righty sticks, either, as he's mowed them down to the tune of a 30.4% strikeout rate this season.
Between overall talent, recent form, and the matchup, it's hard to beat going with Rodon on Tuesday night.
Zack Wheeler ($10,400): Rodon figures to be pretty popular, so if you want to pivot to someone else, Wheeler is a worthwhile alternative.
The Phillies' right-hander draws a tough opponent in the Braves, but Atlanta's active roster owns the second-highest strikeout rate versus righties (26.0%), and despite their immense power, they only have a 3.66 implied total.
Meanwhile, Wheeler is proving that 2021 wasn't a fluke, and he's settled in with a 3.03 SIERA, 28.3% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, and 47.4% ground-ball rate. Although he hasn't been quite the innings-eater of last year, he's tallied quality starts in 8 of his last 10 appearances, so he's consistently going six-plus innings.
There's obvious risk against this formidable offense, but Wheeler got the job done in this matchup in late May, racking up a season-high 10 strikeouts on his way to 54 FanDuel points.
Tarik Skubal ($9,000): Skubal has scuffled through a rough three-game stretch, but this isn't a bad salary to buy in on a guy who still owns a 3.21 SIERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, and 5.3% walk rate.
The Giants have some solid pop against left-handers, but Skubal should have an easier time keeping the ball in play at Oracle Park, one of the least-friendly venues for dingers. Additionally, San Francisco's active roster has a 23.4% strikeout rate versus southpaws, giving this matchup some potential upside.
Skubal will have a difficult time out-dueling and outscoring Rodon in the same game, but on a Coors Field night, the salary savings could go a long way towards moving up the leaderboards tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers disappointed in spectacular fashion at Coors Field on Monday, allowing a complete game shutout to Chad Kuhl of all people. That isn't unlikely to deter the masses from going back to the well tonight, though, as L.A. has another astronomical implied total at 6.38.
We get left-hander Kyle Freeland on the mound this time around, who enters the night with a middling 4.71 SIERA and 15.1% strikeout rate. Freeland hasn't allowed many home runs this season, but a 40.9% ground-ball rate and lucky 7.4% homer-to-fly-ball rate suggests that more are on the way.
If all that wasn't enough, we could see temperatures in the 90s with the wind blowing out, so the ball could be jumping in Colorado.
Trea Turner ($4,600) and Will Smith ($3,900) remain the top right-handed sticks to consider, but Justin Turner ($3,500), Chris Taylor ($3,200), and Trayce Thompson ($2,500) are also options if you don't want to pay those premium salaries. Thompson hasn't done much in limited action this year but owns a career .193 ISO.
Freeland has been wholely unremarkable against lefties this year, though, so don't hesitate to roster Freddie Freeman ($4,500) and Max Muncy ($3,200), particularly if it doesn't seem like they'll see as much popularity as their right-handed counterparts.
Jonathan Heasley has a respectable 4.14 ERA, but his underlying numbers tell the real story. The young righty has amassed a 5.21 SIERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 12.2% walk rate, and 35.8% ground-ball rate over eight starts, and that gives us just about all we could want for a stack.
Heasley has poor peripherals against both sides of the plate, too, making it all the more appealing to roster the Texas Rangers, who are showing one of the slate's better implied totals (4.84).
The Rangers are also the ideal team to pair with Rodon or Wheeler, as Adolis Garcia ($4,300) is the only player with a restrictive salary. Garcia's been the team's best power hitter this year but remains more of a luxury than a must for stacks.
Lefties Corey Seager ($3,400), Kole Calhoun ($2,300), and Nathaniel Lowe ($2,900) will all have the platoon advantage without breaking the bank, and Josh Smith ($2,200) is a no-brainer value play with some speed upside if he's batting leadoff again.
Marcus Semien ($3,000) rounds things out as the projected two-hitter. He's performed much better at the plate in June and can chip in additional points on the basepaths.
Toronto Blue Jays
We're now at a dozen starts for Michael Wacha, and he continues to find success despite mediocre metrics. Among pitchers with at least 50 innings, his .227 BABIP ranks as the sixth-lowest, which looks like a heaping of good fortune for a guy with a career .298 mark. His 4.38 SIERA is also over two runs higher than his 2.34 ERA. Something has to give eventually.
The Toronto Blue Jays could be the team to slap Wacha with that regression. Despite being a righty, Wacha's only displaying a 16.4% strikeout rate in same-sided matchups, which doesn't bode well for him against a lineup of almost entirely righties.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,100), George Springer ($3,500), Bo Bichette ($3,300), and Teoscar Hernandez ($3,200) remain a potent foursome, and we can now add Alejandro Kirk ($3,500) to that group. In fact, it's Kirk who owns the best wRC+ of the five this season (165).
Matt Chapman ($3,200) bats lower in the order but is getting the job done, as well with 11 bombs and a .192 ISO in 2022.