MLB Betting Guide: Friday 6/17/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 9.0 (-114): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Smeltzer owns a mere 17.2% strikeout rate across 103 2/3 career innings, and he's allowed a 41.7% fly-ball rate. His strikeout rate is only 12.5% this year over 34 frames, and his SIERA sits at 5.13. He's not good and should have his hands full tonight with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Even though Arizona's offense is meh overall, our algorithm has them plating 4.81 runs today.
Bumgarner has a tall task, as well, as he'll see a Minnesota Twins lineup that should have studs Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco, and Byron Buxton hitting from the right side. And Bumgarner, like Smeltzer, just isn't very good. The veteran sports an ugly 16.4% strikeout rate and is giving up 1.54 jacks per nine. He's permitted at least four earned runs in three of his past five outings.
Once MadBum is out of the game, he'll turn it over to an Arizona bullpen that carries the third-worst reliever xFIP (4.49).
In all, we forecast Minnesota to push across 5.70 runs.
That's a projected total of 10.51 runs, and we have the over winning out 56.5% of the time. We rate the over as a three-star bet. It's our top bet of the night.
Cleveland Moneyline (+225): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
However, our model gives Cleveland a better chance in this one than their +225 moneyline price implies.
I won't lie -- it's difficult to make a great numbers-based case for Cleveland tonight. But I'll give it a go.
For one, baseball is baseball, and it can be really weird. The sport's variance is one of the top things going for the Guardians tonight.
They'll also get Clayton Kershaw at likely less than his best. The star southpaw is making his second start since coming off the injured list. In his first appearance back, he gave up two earned runs in four frames and needed 71 pitches to get those 12 outs. He's topped out at 87 pitches this season and will likely be on a tight leash tonight once more.
Zach Plesac is going for Cleveland, and while he lacks big-time swing-and-miss stuff, he's walking only 4.9% of hitters and allowing only a 35.6% fly-ball rate. That helps him keep the damage in check most nights and has resulted in a respectable 4.38 SIERA. He's also in good form, permitting only six earned runs over 18 innings across his last three starts.
We project LA to win by a score of 4.55-3.22, but we give the Guardians win odds of 34.6%. Their +225 moneyline price implies win odds of only 30.7%. We mark taking Cleveland to win outright as a one-star bet.