3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Tuesday 6/14/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament. That could be a low-salaried pitcher piling up strikeouts, or it could be a low-salaried hitter swatting a long ball.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Oscar Gonzalez, OF, Guardians ($2,800)
Coors Field returns to Tuesday's slate, but there's just one side worth stacking considering the Guardians are in town sending Shane Bieber to the hill.
As a result, Cleveland's really the one open option for stacking against Antonio Senzatela. The Rockies' right-hander is a tough puzzle to crack. He's got a 4.35 FIP at home despite just a 10.6% strikeout rate overall. You'd think leaving that many balls in play at Coors Field would be a disaster, but he's found a way.
Even if Senzatela performs wizardry once more, the Rockies bullpen has been a disaster, sporting the fourth-worst xFIP in baseball (4.34).
Surprisingly, Cleveland has several stacking configurations that are affordable with an ace. Only Jose Ramirez sits above $3,300 in their projected top half of the order, but Oscar Gonzalez is worth shining a light on.
Gonzalez is a right-hander with reverse splits, and he's actually got a sensational 1.037 OPS versus same-sided hurles. Gonzalez, Amed Rosario, Myles Straw, and Josh Naylor all feel like great values at their salary given their matchup tonight.
Nomar Mazara, OF, Padres ($2,200)
The Padres are at Wrigley Field in Chicago, and I'd check today's weather if you haven't already.
Winds around 15 miles per hour are expected with mid-90-degree temperatures across "The Windy City" today. That's a phenomenal hitting environment for the Friars as visitors today, and they've got a 5.32 implied team total as a result.
Another huge factor in that total could be the Cubbies' starter, Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks has scuffled to an ugly 4.93 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), and a 39.3% hard-hit rate is just too high for a low-whiff pitcher (8.8% swinging-strike rate).
The only problem is San Diego has had an issue finding solid contributors against right-handed bats outside of Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer. Nomar Mazara has risen to the occasion.
In 10 games as a Padre, Mazara has a 106 wRC+. The power hasn't come yet (.040 ISO), but this is a small sample size for a guy that hit plenty of tanks with the Texas Rangers.
In this stellar environment, San Diego offers plenty of value options to pair with an ace on FanDuel, including Mazara, Hosmer, Luke Voit, and Jake Cronenworth.
Rob Refsnyder, 2B, Red Sox ($2,000)
With Enrique Hernandez on the IL, the Red Sox have turned to journeyman Rob Refsnyder at the top of their lineup.
In two games leading off since returning, Refsynder is just one-for-six with a walk and a run. His quiet start is why you see the leadoff hitter for this offense still at FanDuel's minimum salary. However, he'll have a chance to do damage on Tuesday.
The visiting Athletics are turning to Jared Koenig on the bump for a second time, and Koenig's debut was ugly. He was blasted for four runs in four innings with a 53.8% hard-hit rate. Boston crushes lefties (109 wRC+), so this spot in hitter-friendly Fenway Park is about as bad of one you could craft for an encore. The A's bullpen also has the sixth-worst xFIP in baseball (4.29).
There is a bevy of aces worth prioritizing on Tuesday's slate, so Refsnyder goes a long way to squeezing in parts from the heart of the order without a player below $3,500 on FanDuel. The next-best option is likely Bobby Dalbec, who is projected to hit seventh and clogs first base.
