3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for Tuesday 4/12/22
Stacks are an integral part of daily fantasy baseball. They can push a team to the top of a GPP by driving upside. However, they're also viable in cash games, namely smaller (two-person or three-person) stacks that mitigate the volatility of a full four-person stack.
This article is your home throughout the 2022 Major League Baseball season for the day's top stacks. The primary goal is to identify the highest-scoring upside stack. Still, game theory will play a role in contrarian stacks making the cut as GPP options. Nevertheless, chalky stacks will make appearances in this space, too.
Beyond my analysis in this space, I strongly suggest numberFire premium members using our DFS Sharpstack tool and hitting heat map tool. The DFS Sharpstack helps plug stacks into optimized lineups, allowing you to change parameters and lock or exclude players and teams. Meanwhile, the heat map offers a one-stop-shop for the opposing starting pitcher, implied total, park factor, and other notable goodies.
Now, let's look at the top stacks on today's main slate.
Atlanta Braves
It speaks volumes about where Patrick Corbin is in his career that allowing two runs on five hits and two walks in four-plus innings in his first start of 2022 is a small victory. According to FanGraphs, in 241 and 1/3 innings since 2020, Corbin has had a 5.48 ERA, 4.54 Skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), and coughed up 1.75 homers per nine innings. Thus, I love the Atlanta Braves' odds of laying the lumber to Corbin tonight.
Corbin had no answers for right-handed batters in 2021. He yielded a .558 slugging and .387 weighted on-base average (wOBA) to 602 righties faced. So, queue up Atlanta's hitters with the platoon advantage.
Among Atlanta's righties, my favorites include Austin Riley ($4,000), Marcell Ozuna ($2,900), and Adam Duvall ($2,900). Further, switch-hitter Ozzie Albies ($3,900) has the platoon advantage against Corbin. The quartet has the power to exacerbate Corbin's homer woes, evidenced by their Isolated Power (ISO) marks against lefties since 2019, starting with Riley's .232 ISO, followed by the progressively higher marks of Duvall's .250, Albies' .257, and Ozuna's .298.
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins are also treated to a matchup with a homer-prone starting pitcher. Andrew Heaney has allowed 1.62 homers per nine innings in his career, 1.79 since 2019, and ceded a career-high 2.01 in 2021.
Additionally, Heaney's struggles haven't been limited to serving souvenirs to fans. He had a ghastly 5.83 ERA in 129 and 2/3 innings pitched last year, and he has had a 5.21 ERA in 291 and 2/3 innings since 2019. Usually, I would point to Heaney's better ERA estimators. However, I'm unwilling to cut the 30-year-old lefty slack by labeling his struggles as bad luck.
Like the previously mentioned lefty Corbin, Heaney was knocked around by right-handed batters in 2021. Righties teed off on Heaney for a .500 slugging and .345 wOBA. As I suggested doing with the Braves, I suggest attacking Heaney with Minnesota's right-handed boppers.
It starts at the top of Minnesota's order with white-hot Byron Buxton ($3,900). The only thing that's slowed Buxton down in recent years has been injuries. Since 2019, he has had a .353 OBP, .294 ISO, and 154 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) in 190 plate appearances against lefties. Buxton's scorched the baseball to start this year, slugging three homers, two doubles and recording a .733 ISO, .412 OBP, and 293 wRC+ through 17 plate appearances.
Other righties I like for tonight from the Twins include Jorge Polanco ($3,300), Carlos Correa ($3,300), and Gio Urshela ($2,900). The trio project to hit directly after Buxton in the second through fourth spots in the order. However, you shouldn't sleep on down-order mashers Gary Sanchez ($2,800) and Miguel Sano ($2,200). Sanchez has had a .270 ISO, and Sano has tallied a .218 ISO versus southpaws since 2019.
Los Angeles Dodgers
While I love the Twins against Heaney tonight, it's important to note that the Los Angeles Dodgers are betting favorites and have a higher implied total. The Dodgers boast a jaw-dropping collection of talented hitters. Unfortunately for Chris Archer, he's probably underqualified to hold them in check. The veteran righty has battled various injuries the last two years, missing the entire 2020 season after having surgery for neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome.
Archer missed significant time in 2021 with unrelated injuries, pitching only 19 and 1/3 innings. He wasn't good when on the bump, yielding a 4.66 ERA with a 5.96 Expected ERA (xERA), 4.36 SIERA, and 1.40 homers per nine innings. In Archer's last 139 innings, he has allowed 1.81 homers per nine innings with a 5.12 ERA and 4.37 SIERA. In addition, Archer allowed a .324 wOBA to lefties and .337 wOBA to righties during that stretch. As a result, it's all hands on deck for a Dodgers stack.
Picking my favorite hitters from the Dodgers isn't an easy task. Nonetheless, Freddie Freeman ($3,700) and Trea Turner ($3,800) are my two favorites from the two-hole and third spot in the order. Freeman feasts against righties, beating them like a drum for a .427 OBP, .264 ISO, and 160 wRC+ since 2019.
Turner has excelled in same-handed matchups, recording a .355 OBP, .197 ISO, and 124 wRC+ against fellow righties since 2019. However, Turner's speed shouldn't be overlooked. Catchers Sanchez and Ryan Jeffers do a poor job of controlling base runners, and Archer isn't any great shakes at doing so either. Meanwhile, last year, Turner stole 32 bases and has stolen 203 bases in 692 games in his big-league career.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
