4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Tuesday 9/21/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. These low-salary picks sometimes being the difference between a good lineup and a great lineup isn't much different than DFS for other sports. But value plays being able to completely make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play is somewhat unique to MLB DFS.
Jose Urquidy, SP, Astros
FanDuel Salary: $8,700
Jose Urquidy is a good pitcher in a nice matchup at a modest salary. That's exactly what we're looking for in a value arm.
Urquidy is taking on the Los Angeles Angels, an offense that ranks third-worst in wOBA (.285) over the last 30 days with the fifth-highest strikeout rate (24.5%) in that span. The Angels' 3.73 implied total is the third-lowest on the slate as of early Tuesday.
The overall numbers for Urquidy this year are pretty solid. He's got a 4.20 SIERA, 21.8% strikeout rate, 11.7% swinging-strike rate and 4.8% walk rate. The negative for Urquidy is his pitch count. In three starts since coming off the injured list, he's tossed 71, 70 and 81 pitches. The 81-pitch outing was his most recent, so he's trending up, and he can do damage while he's out there -- which was the case in said previous start as he posted 41 FanDuel points in six masterful innings.
With hurlers like Brandon Woodruff and Kevin Gausman on the slate, you need some semblance of a ceiling if you're fading the high-salary arms. Urquidy offers that and can help you get more pieces of Coors than you can get if you roster those guys.
Josh Rojas, 2B/SS, Diamondbacks
FanDuel Salary: $2,500
Josh Rojas has hit leadoff in four straight games, and he's swiped two bags across his last six outings. That should interest you at this salary.
Rojas and the Arizona Diamondbacks are facing veteran righty Jesse Chavez. Rojas sports a .372 wOBA at home against right-handers, and Chavez is serving as an opener, which means plenty of an Atlanta Braves bullpen that is 12th-worst in SIERA (4.02) this season.
Our model ranks Rojas as the second-best point-per-dollar play among all hitters, projecting him for 12.8 FanDuel points.
Jake Meyers, OF, Astros
FanDuel Salary: $2,200
The Houston Astros are in a money spot against lefty Packy Naughton, and they're showing a juicy 5.27 implied total. While a lot of Houston's bats are way up there in salary, Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick ($2,200) are not. They're easy ways to get exposure to the Astros, and their salaries are super handy on a Coors slate.
Naughton owns a 14.3% strikeout rate in a small sample in the bigs this year, and he'll likely have a rough night against one of baseball's best -- if not the best -- offenses.
Meyers boasts a .377 wOBA against lefties while McCormick has 4 jacks and a 51.0% fly-ball rate in 74 plate appearances in the split. Going by our projections, Meyers is the best point-per-dollar stick, and McCormick checks in third.
Brad Miller, 1B, Phillies
FanDuel Salary: $2,400
I feel like I'm writing up Brad Miller fairly regularly now -- because I am -- but he's still low in salary and keeps finding himself in quality matchups.
Tonight the Philadelphia Phillies are at home against Conner Greene, a righty reliever who will be an opener for the Baltimore Orioles. The O's 'pen is fifth-worst in SIERA (4.30) this year with the fourth-lowest strikeout rate (22.0%). It's a group we can attack.
Miller has a .361 wOBA against righties for the season, and he's been hot of late, recording a .349 wOBA, 48.4% hard-hit rate and 45.2% fly-ball rate in September. He's our ninth-best point-per-dollar hitter among those with a salary under $3,000.
