3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Thursday 9/16/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. These low-salary picks sometimes being the difference between a good lineup and a great lineup isn't much different than DFS for other sports. But value plays being able to completely make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play is somewhat unique to MLB DFS.
Brad Miller, 1B, Phillies
FanDuel Salary: $2,400
Kyle Hendricks is having the worst season of his career. His usually blah strikeout rate is even worse in 2021, sitting at a career-low 16.9%, and his 4.69 SIERA is another career-worst clip. Homers have been a huge issue for him as he's been tagged for 1.57 jacks per nine.
All of that puts the Philadelphia Phillies on the stacking radar, and it makes Brad Miller a superb value pick.
Against righties this year, Miller boasts a .363 wOBA and 45.3% hard-hit rate. He's posted a 45.2% hard-hit rate in the second half and rates as our top point-per-dollar hitter on the slate.
Joey Gallo, OF, Yankees
FanDuel Salary: $3,100
At $3,100, Joey Gallo is not a true low-salary value play, but he's definitely a smashing value. Our model rates him as the number-two overall bat, projecting him for 15.8 FanDuel points.
Gallo and the New York Yankees are squaring off with Chris Ellis. In 57 Triple-A frames this year, Ellis had just a 22.7% strikeout rate and permitted 2.21 homers per nine. Taking on the Yankees at Camden Yards probably isn't going to go well for him, and oddsmakers have given the Bronx Bombers a gaudy 5.92 implied total.
Gallo has mashed his way to a .353 wOBA and 50.0% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage. At this modest salary, he will likely be super chalky and could end up being the slate's most popular stick.
Manuel Margot, OF, Rays
FanDuel Salary: $2,400
The Tampa Bay Rays are another quality stacking option. They are showing a 4.92 implied total for their home date with lefty Tyler Alexander.
For the year, Alexander has pitched to a 19.9% strikeout rate and 4.34 SIERA. Righties are getting to him for a .344 wOBA, 40.5% hard-hit rate and 44.0% fly-ball rate.
Enter Manuel Margot.
Margot hit second versus a southpaw yesterday, and he's much better in this split, holding a .323 wOBA while striking out just 12.1% of the time. We rate him as the seventh-best point-per-dollar hitter among those with a salary under $3,000.
