MLB

4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Monday 9/20/21

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 Sep 20th, 2021
Willy Adames likely returns for Milwaukee on Monday, and his salary is friendly in a solid matchup. Where else can we spend down on the main slate?

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.

That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that these low-salary picks can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than DFS for other sports. But value plays being able to completely make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play is somewhat unique.

Huascar Ynoa, P, Braves

FanDuel Salary: $8,400

While many will turn to Nestor Cortes of the Yankees for value against the Rangers, Huascar Ynoa is a razor-sharp pivot off of the Yanks' left-hander in a superior matchup.

Cortes posted a season-high 11 strikeouts in his last start versus Baltimore, but Texas has not shown that same vulnerability lately. The Rangers' 20.2% strikeout rate as a team against lefties since the trade deadline is the tenth-lowest in MLB in that span. The Diamondbacks are a different story against Ynoa, as their 26.4% strikeout rate against righties is the fourth-highest in that same time frame. In that period, Arizona also has just a 78 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

Ynoa has recently shown he can provide the requisite strikeout upside needed for tournaments. He has at least seven strikeouts in his past two starts, but he has not started the 6th inning in either of them due to a high pitch count. Arizona's team walk rate of 8.3% should help him be slightly more efficient with his pitches, and if he can maintain his 27.7% strikeout rate while sticking around long enough to garner FanDuel's quality start bonus, he could be the top per-dollar option on the main slate.

Jorge Soler, OF, Braves

FanDuel Salary: $2,500

Ynoa's chances to score a win are boosted by the Atlanta Braves' offensive projections as well. The Bravos have a 5.25 implied run total on Monday, which is the third-highest behind Houston and New York.

A substantial part of that is the expectation that Arizona's right-handed starter Humberto Mejia regresses to his peripherals soon. Mejia has a 4.59 expected ERA (xERA) in the majors this season, but his frightening AAA peripherals are what oddsmakers believe will contribute to a good night for the Atlanta offense. Mejia has a 6.19 xFIP and 1.26 HR/9 in 15 appearances with Triple-A Reno this season.

The key cog to a Braves stack is Jorge Soler. Soler is just $2,500 and projected to hit second as he usually does for Atlanta. He is no doubt a better draw against lefties, but in this spot, his .159 ISO and 35.7% hard-hit rate are serviceable. All other projected Atlanta starters are salaried at $2,900 or higher, which makes Soler crucial to being able to stack them with Robbie Ray.

Willy Adames, SS, Brewers
Daniel Vogelbach, 1B, Brewers

FanDuel Salary: $2,800 and $2,300

Jake Woodford does not get a lot of strikeouts, and that may be just enough reason to stack the Milwaukee Brewers at reasonable salaries.

Woodford parlays a below-average 17.4% strikeout rate with a 9.1% walk rate, and that means plenty of balls in play for his opponents. His 4.98 xERA is not downright awful, but it does suggest regression from his 4.30 ERA is likely coming, and it could take place Monday night in Milwaukee.

The boon for the Brew Crew tonight is the potential return of Willy Adames. Adames is expected to return Monday from the injured list after nursing a sore quad, and while re-injury risk is possible, Milwaukee is not rushing Adames back with an 11.5-game lead in their division and Luis Urias playing well. Adames is likely back at 100%, and that puts his .217 ISO versus right-handers back on the table as well at just $2,800.

Dan Vogelbach is not returning from injury, but he is still under-salaried. Vogelbach has a 47.1% hard-hit rate against righties since the trading deadline, but amazingly, he has just a .120 ISO to show for it. His .365 wOBA in that same span, however, is more than satisfactory at this low of a salary.