3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Thursday 8/12/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's four-game main slate.
Logan Webb, SP, San Francisco Giants
FanDuel Salary: $7,600
Tonight's main slate is a whopping four games, so it's not as if you'll be choosing from a loaded pool of pitchers. At home against the Colorado Rockies, Logan Webb should garner consideration on this slate regardless of salary.
As we've noted previously in this column, few things are as delicious as Rocky Road -- I.e., facing the Rockies when they're on the road. To date, Colorado's amassed a 66 wRC+ mark away from Coors Field, which is, by far, the worst in all of baseball. Their 25.9% strikeout rate in that split is good for fourth-worst.
Meanwhile, Webb enters tonight's contest as one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. Among hurlers with at least 70 innings pitched this season, the right-hander ranks 10th with a 3.06 xFIP, per FanGraphs. Webb's 3.19 ERA and 25.2% K rate are nothing to sneeze at, either.
The 24-year-old has topped 30 FanDuel points in six of his last nine outings, and he's totaled at least 39 in 5 of his last 12. He should be able to add to that total tonight.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B/OF, Chicago White Sox
FanDuel Salary: $3,000
A salary of $3,000 might seem like a stretch to be called "value", but on a four-game slate, we'll take what we can get.
The fact is, Andrew Vaughn should be looked at like a stud tonight. That's because he'll be going up against New York Yankees southpaw Andrew Heaney.
Since 2017, Heaney's racked up a 5.02 ERA against right-handed hitters, who have smashed him for 2.0 dongs per nine frames during that stretch. Wowza.
Enter Vaughn, who, as a rookie, has simply demolished opposite-handed pitching. In 102 plate appearances against lefties in 2021, Vaughn has accrued a .318 average, 1.048 OPS, .318 ISO, .440 wOBA, and 186 wRC+. Those numbers are worthy of a salary north of $4,000 -- so I feel entirely comfortable calling him a "value play" at $3,000.
Austin Nola, C, San Diego Padres
FanDuel Salary: $2,500
There's no guarantee that Austin Nola will be in the lineup tonight for the San Diego Padres, but if he is, he'll be in my DFS lineups as well.
The Friars have one of the best matchups of the night against Arizona Diamondbacks starter Taylor Widener. Through 66 innings in the bigs, the 26-year-old has accumulated a 4.77 ERA, 5.20 xFIP, and is ceding 2.18 homers per nine. Not great.
Widener has been pretty generous to hitters from both sides of the plate, so we don't have to be picky when choosing a Padres stack.
Meanwhile, over his last 75 trips to the plate, Nola has hit for a .349 average to go with a .916 OPS and 16 RBI. His career 118 wRC+ against righties is not far off from what it's been when he's had the platoon advantage (123). Fire him up tonight.
