4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Friday 6/4/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's eight-game main slate, which locks at 7:05 PM Eastern.
Freddy Peralta, SP, Milwaukee Brewers ($8,700)
We have every team in action tonight, and a number of them will have their ace on the bump, but it's Freddy Peralta who sticks out like a sore thumb in the value department.
Peralta carries a 37.2% strikeout rate into tonight's matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks, which tops every single starting pitcher tonight, according to FanGraphs. The 25-year-old sports an ERA of 2.38, which is backed up by an xERA of 2.43 and a 3.05 SIERA. Freddy has thrown at least 87 pitches in 8 of his last 10 outings, including 97-plus in three of his last four, so length shouldn't be an issue.
Peralta's ability to rack up punchouts has given him a solid floor in fantasy to go along with an enticing ceiling. He has sent at least seven batters packing in each of his 10 starts this season, and he's racked up 45 or more FanDuel points in six of those efforts.
Now, Arizona is not the most strikeout-happy offense in the league -- their 23.9% rate against righties ranks 16th -- but their 87 wRC+ against right-handers is tied for the eighth-worst mark. Peralta has also been dominant at home this season, as he has a perfect 3-0 record to go with a 1.41 ERA and 46 strikeouts in 32 innings at American Family Field.
Michael Taylor, OF, Kansas City Royals ($2,400)
The Royals will have the pleasure of going up against Minnesota Twins starter Matt Shoemaker. This season, Shoemaker's 5.15 SIERA ranks dead last among all starters tonight. In 79 innings since the start of 2020, hitters are belting 2.1 homers per nine innings against the 34-year-old, who also has a lowly 17.4% strikeout rate during that stretch. The veteran has been equally generous to batters on both sides of the plate, so we don't have to be picky if we stack Kansas City tonight.
Taylor has thoroughly enjoyed the friendly confines at Kauffman Stadium this season, as he's posted a .326 on-base percentage and a .200 ISO at home. The 25-year-old has racked up 12.5, 15.7, 15.7, 22.2, and 28.2 FanDuel points in five of his last seven home games.
Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals ($2,800)
While his underlying numbers aren't as bad, Luis Castillo has had a dreadful season. Among all pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, Castillo's 7.22 ERA ranks dead last...and it's not particularly close. The 28-year-old's 19.3% strikeout rate is by far the worst of his career, as is his 1.78 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .314 against him on the back of a ridiculously high .371 BABIP.
Again, Castillo's suffered from some bad luck this season, but it's not all bad luck. Until his production starts to match what he's done in past seasons, we should attack him in DFS.
Over his last 46 games, Carlson is hitting at a .294 clip while posting a .376 on-base average. Additionally, after going 182 plate appearances without a dong, Carlson has swatted three bombs in his last five games. Let's ride the hot hand.
Nick Gordon, 2B, Minnesota Twins ($2,000)
For his career, Keller has faced 912 lefties, and he's allowed them to get on base at a .350 clip (it's .369 this season).
While we can attack Keller with any of Alex Kirilloff ($2,700), Trevor Larnach ($2,400), or Jorge Polanco, I want to highlight the minimum-salaried Nick Gordon, especially if you're paying up for one of the aces tonight.
Gordon was recently recalled from Triple-A, where he was hitting .393 with five steals, and he has started each of the last two games for Minnesota. Given the frequency that lefties have gotten on base against Keller, a couple of hits and steals are certainly within the realm of possibilities for Gordon.