MLB Betting Guide: Monday 8/31/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
Over 7.5 (-104): 3-Star Rating out of 5
numberFire's model sees three-star value in taking the over in the Indians-Royals and Rays-Yankees contests, which are both set at just 7.5 runs.
But with Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow taking the mound in New York, it's easy to imagine that game turning into a pitching duel, so the other one might be the way to go.
Shane Bieber has been phenomenal this year, so we probably shouldn't expect much support from Kansas City's lineup, but Cleveland might be able to get things going against Brad Keller.
Although Keller has a 2.08 ERA over four starts, the underlying numbers don't back it up. The right-hander has a pedestrian 5.04 SIERA, 21.6% strikeout rate, and a 12.5% walk rate, and even his usually high ground-ball has dipped to 45.5%. He's coming off a poor start against the Cardinals, allowing 5 earned runs over 4.0 innings.
While Bieber's excellent season adds risk to this wager, eight total runs is a low bar to reach, and our algorithm sees the over hitting 61.56% of the time.
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
Over 12.0 (-110): 2-Star Rating out of 5
On the opposite side of the spectrum, we see the over/under in Coors Field set at a whopping 12 runs.
But the San Diego Padres have been one of the best offenses in the league this year, and adding Mitch Moreland only adds further depth. Their active roster leads all teams in wRC+ against right-handers (134), which isn't great news for Colorado Rockies starter German Marquez.
Marquez has put up solid peripheral numbers in recent years, but he's hovered around league average in 2020, with a 4.27 SIERA, 22.4% strikeout rate, and 7.3% walk rate. He was shelled by the Astros in his last Coors start, and things won't get any easier tonight.
As for the Rockies, their lineup isn't nearly as imposing, but they get the easier opposing pitcher in Garrett Richards. Richards isn't getting strikeouts or ground balls -- never a good sign entering Coors -- and when you throw in a high walk rate, this could go south really quickly. His 5.18 SIERA is virtually identical to his 5.17 ERA.
Despite the high total, numberFire's model projects over a dozen runs 53.21% of the time, making this a two-star bet.
