MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/9/20 on FanDuel
Do you miss Major League Baseball? Yeah, we do, too.
Enter MLB Sim Sports, a free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Below are the starting pitchers for tonight's slate, which locks at 8:02 pm ET. Stats are from 2019 and limited to just games started, so you may see slight changes in the overall numbers of some players who made appearances out of the bullpen. Opposing strikeout rate and wRC+ are last year's numbers against a given pitcher's handedness using updated active rosters, per FanGraphs.
|Pitcher||Salary||Opp.||SIERA||K%||BB%||Opp. K%||Opp. wRC+|
|Justin Verlander (R)||$12,000||TEX||2.95||35.4%||5.0%||25.5 %||89|
|Max Scherzer (R)||$11,700||@ATL||2.93||35.1%||4.8%||22.4 %||100|
|Shane Bieber (R)||$11,200||@CWS||3.36||30.2%||4.7%||25.6 %||107|
|Clayton Kershaw (L)||$10,400||@CIN||3.77||26.7%||5.8%||22.8 %||102|
|Trevor Bauer (R)||$9,700||LOS||4.14||27.8%||9.0%||20.2 %||122|
|Aaron Nola (R)||$9,500||CHC||4.14||26.9%||9.4%||23.5 %||108|
|Matthew Boyd (L)||$9,100||OAK||3.61||30.2%||6.4%||19.9 %||114|
|Tyler Glasnow (R)||$8,800||BOS||3.18||33.0%||6.1%||19.9 %||105|
|Frankie Montas (R)||$8,600||@DET||3.76||26.1%||5.8%||25.6 %||82|
|Marcus Stroman (R)||$8,400||STL||4.41||20.5%||7.5%||23.6 %||94|
|Chris Archer (R)||$8,200||@SFG||4.38||27.2%||10.5%||24.0 %||89|
|Brandon Woodruff (R)||$8,100||SDP||3.60||29.0%||6.1%||25.0 %||88|
|Julio Teheran (R)||$8,000||MIA||5.11||21.5%||11.0%||24.4 %||95|
|Mike Minor (L)||$7,800||@HOU||4.51||23.2%||7.9%||15.9 %||137|
|Joey Lucchesi (L)||$7,500||@MIL||4.48||23.0%||8.2%||20.7 %||102|
|Jose Quintana (L)||$7,400||@PHI||4.55||19.9%||5.9%||23.9 %||109|
|Dallas Keuchel (L)||$7,200||CLE||4.39||18.7%||8.0%||20.8 %||104|
|Madison Bumgarner (L)||$7,000||@COL||4.15||24.1%||5.1%||24.1 %||98|
|Martin Perez (L)||$6,800||@TAM||5.01||17.8%||8.4%||27.1 %||99|
|Adam Wainwright (R)||$6,600||@NYM||4.70||20.5%||8.6%||21.5 %||109|
|German Marquez (R)||$6,500||ARI||3.85||24.3%||4.9%||21.8 %||96|
|Mike Foltynewicz (R)||$6,400||WAS||4.71||21.4%||7.5%||21.5 %||96|
|Johnny Cueto (R)||$6,200||PIT||5.49||19.4%||13.4%||20.1 %||94|
|Sandy Alcantara (R)||$6,000||@LAA||5.28||18.0%||9.7%||20.3 %||109|
To help get you started, let's go through some of the top pitchers and stacks on tonight's slate.
If you bypass those two, you can make an argument for most of the higher-priced hurlers who follow, but Tyler Glasnow ($8,800) gives you just as much potential at his mid-range price. Last year's 33.0% strikeout rate is just a couple hairs behind Verlander and Scherzer, and Glasnow's home ballpark should help suppress scoring against the Red Sox.
Chris Archer ($8,200) and Brandon Woodruff ($8,100) are arguably the top overall values when paying down (Archer is still in the sim player pool despite his recent surgery). They both have rock-solid strikeout rates and draw plus matchups against the Giants and Padres, respectively.
Mike Minor posted mediocre peripherals in 2019 and will have his hands full against the Houston Astros. The left-hander projects as a league-average pitcher at best in 2020, so we shouldn't be surprised if the simulated Astros put up some crooked numbers.
All the top Astros are in play, with George Springer ($3,800) always a joy to use against lefties. Carlos Correa ($3,300) and Yordan Alvarez ($2,700) are good values at their salaries. Alvarez didn't miss a beat against lefties in 2019 (.342 ISO).
Madison Bumgarner is visiting Coors Field, and despite respectable numbers last season, he's been trending in the wrong direction the past few years. Like Minor, he's looking like more of a pedestrian arm moving forward, as Steamer projects him for a 4.51 ERA and 22.6% strikeout rate while giving up 1.54 home runs per 9 innings.
That's probably not going to cut it against the Colorado Rockies. You'll probably need to pay down at pitcher to get Nolan Arenado ($4,400) and Trevor Story ($4,300), but they could be worth it for their lethal track records versus southpaws. Ian Desmond ($3,000) is one of the better lower-priced Colorado bats.
Meanwhile, the Oakland Athletics are a good contrarian stack against lefty Matthew Boyd. Although Boyd can rack up strikeouts, he also gave up 1.89 home runs per 9 innings last year. He's never posted a sub-4.00 ERA, and dingers are a projected issue yet again in 2020.
Boyd's high strikeout rate might deter FanDuel users from rostering the Athletics, and their cheap salaries will allow you to pay up for someone like Verlander. Load up on guys like Matt Chapman ($3,000), Khris Davis ($2,800), and Mark Canha ($2,700), and don't hesitate to include lefty slugger Matt Olson ($3,400), too.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.