5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 8/26/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Dustin May, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers ($6,200)
Since his call-up to the majors, top prospect Dustin May has been very good with the Los Angeles Dodgers in his three starts. His 2.65 ERA in starts has been more than useful and he’s maintained great control as shown by his 15:2 strikeout to walk ratio (K:BB) in 17 innings pitched.
Dustin May will face the San Diego Padres tonight. Since August 14th, the day Fernando Tatis Jr.'s season ended due to injury, the Padres have the 3rd worst team-wide wRC+ and wOBA along with striking out at the 6th highest rate in all of baseball. It’s a great matchup for a good starting pitcher at a cheap price.
Derek Dietrich, 2B, Cincinnati Reds ($2,100)
Derek Dietrich grades out as the fourth-best point-per-dollar play on the slate, according to our projections. Dietrich boasts a 125 wRC+ and a .327 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2019. Even hitting seventh in the order, there's value at just $2,100 given the power upside.
Whit Merrifield, 2B, Kansas City Royals ($3,000)
It doesn’t really make any sense to me why Whit Merrifield is so cheap today. He’s continued to hit well all season long. He’s at the top of the order today in a good matchup against Oakland Athletics starter Homer Bailey.
Since being traded to the Athletics, Bailey has really struggled. In 38 innings, Bailey has a 5.68 ERA with five home runs allowed. His biggest problem is hitters just hit the ball extremely hard against him, as hitters rank in the 89th percentile of exit velocity when facing Bailey. I’d expect his struggles to continue tonight, and for Merrifield to reap the benefits at the top of the Kansas City Royals lineup.
Mark Canha, OF, Oakland Athletics ($3,200)
Mark Canha has been red-hot lately. In his last 19 games, Canha is slashing .370/.446/.630. Canha has shown more power in this recent stretch with five home runs in his last 83 plate appearances.
The big reason I love Mark Canha tonight is his matchup. Brad Keller has surrendered a 5.17 SIERA, collectively, in 2019, as well as a hard-hit rate of 36.9%. The xFIP against righties is still high at 4.76, and he has struck out just 15.3% of right-handed hitters this season. With a hard-hit rate allowed of 37.8%, Keller should give Canha plenty of opportunities.
Eric Thames, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers ($3,000)
Pretty much whenever the Brewers face a right-handed pitcher, Eric Thames can be considered a value. He’s always been better against righties than lefties, but this season it’s been more dramatic as shown by .900 OPS against righties, compared to his .599 against lefties.
The matchup tonight for Thames is St. Louis Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright. Wainwright really struggled against left-handed hitters. On the season lefties are hitting for a .912 OPS with 10 home runs against Wainwright. Thames has also left the yard twice in 15 plate appearances against Wainwright. It’s a good matchup given Wainwright’s struggles and at just $3,000 I love the value for Thames.
James Kohout is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, James Kohout also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username jt2115. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.