4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/18/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Stephen Strasburg OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-126)
Strasburg comes in with a 29.1% strikeout rate this season, which is the second-highest on the slate tonight, and we should be looking at his 6.5 prop as a strong bet even with a little bit of juice. The Atlanta Braves have a 22.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, which isn't super high, but over the course of his career, Strasburg has seen plenty of success against them. In 174.1 innings pitched, Strasburg has posted 215 strikeouts against the Braves and has seen even more success in their new park.
When at SunTrust Park, Strasburg has 28.1 innings pitched while racking up 42 strikeouts. A somewhat low prop looks on the easier side for Strasburg tonight.
Mike Moustakas To Hit a Home Run (+250)
The pitcher on the mound for Arizona is Merrill Kelly, who only has 110 innings pitched in his Major League career, and while he's gotten solid results, they aren't supported by his peripherals. He comes in allowing a 44.6% hard-hit rate and is carrying a 5.00 xFIP against lefty hitters. While Kelly hasn't allowed a ton of home runs this season to lefties, getting hit hard like that won't end well for him, and he could be due for a bit of regression.
We have a young pitcher who isn't showing us anything to be afraid of, so in this spot, I'll side with the proven hitter, who has amazing numbers versus right-handed pitchers. That hitter is Mike Moustakas, who comes in with a .276 ISO, 46.1% hard-hit rate, and a 45.3% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. It's what Moustakas has been known for, crushing righty pitchers, so roll with this prop tonight at great odds.
Alex Bregman To Hit a Home Run (+280)
Alex Bregman is one of the best hitters in the league, but does that mean he is in a good spot for a home run tonight?
Our projections have Bregman as the fifth most likely hitter to go deep tonight, so let's take a look at why. The Houston Astros are on the road to take the Los Angeles Angels, who will have Matt Harvey on the bump. We all know what kind of pitcher Harvey once was, but the Dark Knight is no more. Harvey is the pitcher we need on this slate since we want to attack him with home run props -- Bregman's to be specific.
At +280 odds tonight, Bregman's home run prop brings a nice mix of being profitable along with not being too much of a long shot. If we jump to the stats side of things, we see that Harvey is allowing 1.84 homers per nine innings to righty hitters this season off a 19.4% home-run-to-fly-ball rate. This should match up well with Bregman's 42.5% fly-ball rate and his 39.6% hard-hit rate versus right-handed pitchers.
Tanner Roark OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-104)
Favorable odds for the over on a strikeout prop is great, but Tanner Roark isn't a big strikeout pitcher. Can we still roll with this prop bet?
Roark comes into this game with a 22.6% strikeout rate this season, which isn't amazing by any means, but he has managed to post six or more strikeouts in six of his last nine starts, a nice change of pace from the veteran. As noted, this is a very favorable line for the over, and despite a lower rate overall, we have him projected for 5.71 strikeouts tonight.
He is up against the St. Louis Cardinals, who are right around league average in terms of strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, but they are working with a very watered down lineup tonight, which should prove an easier route to hitting the over tonight.