4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/17/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Chris Paddack OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-144)
Paddack has been an amazing story this season, and he is backing it up with his 26.7% strikeout rate, which is the fifth-highest among pitchers in action tonight. From a real baseball perspective, fantasy perspective, or betting perspective, Paddack is in a phenomenal spot tonight going up against the Miami Marlins, who have a 25.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, which is the fifth-worst in the league. The Marlins are one of the worst teams in the league -- this shouldn't be news to anyone -- and we want to target them for this strikeout prop tonight.
Paddack comes in with six or more strikeouts in five of his last seven starts, and even with a bit of juice on the over, this prop is looking very strong tonight.
Mike Clevinger OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-108)
Believe it or not, Mike Clevinger has the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher in action tonight. Will he hit the over on his prop?
Yes, Clevinger has the highest strikeout rate sitting at 39.7%, but take that with a large grain of salt since he only has six starts under his belt this season due to missing time with an injury. A much smaller sample size for him, but he showed last year to be a great strikeout pitcher and ended with a 25.6% K-rate. It's clear his strikeout rate will regress at some point, but he has a chance to slow that regression down since his matchup tonight is so favorable.
Clevinger is up against the Detroit Tigers, who have a 25.9% strikeout rate this season versus righty pitchers, which is the second-worst in the league. Clevinger has 45.1 innings pitched against them in his career and has total 44 strikeouts in that time. The over has very little juice tonight and given how strong Clevinger has been against them in the past, there is a good chance he hits it tonight.
Ketel Marte To Hit a Home Run (+330)
Ketel Marte is having an amazing season, and that is shown by being an All-Star for the first time, so no time to let off the gas with his props.
This is a positive park shift for the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are in Texas to take on Jesse Chavez. We are in for another very hot night in Arlington where the first-pitch temperature is going to be up at 96 degrees. An already great hitter's park is getting a boost due to the weather, which should put Marte in a spot to go deep tonight. That is shown in our projections, as he is our eighth most likely hitter to hit a home run tonight. He is boasting a .380 wOBA, .233 ISO, and a 44.3% hard-hit rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.
Chavez is only giving up a 37.7% fly-ball rate this season to lefty hitters, but the park factor and the weather should give the edge to Marte tonight.
Max Muncy To Hit a Home Run (+220)
This might be breaking news to some people but, the Los Angeles Dodgers are a great team, and more importantly, they are great at hitting home runs.
The Dodgers have hit nine home runs in the first two games against the Philadelphia Phillies, and that won't be stopping tonight since they are facing off against Nick Pivetta, who is allowing 1.91 home runs per nine innings to lefty hitters this season. That falls right in line for a hitter like Max Muncy, who comes in blasting righty pitchers this season with a .294 ISO, 43.8% hard-hit rate and a 28.6% home-run-to-fly-ball rate.
Muncy is in the 88th percentile for his xSLG this season and 91st percentile with his xwOBA, per Baseball Savant. He is crushing the ball this season, and with his four home runs in last six games, he is likely to continue that tonight.