4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/28/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jacob deGrom OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-128)
deGrom comes in with a 30.6% strikeout rate this season, which is the highest on the slate among qualified pitchers, and he comes in with eight or more strikeouts in four of his last five starts. One of those starts over eight strikeouts was against this very same Braves team, where he posted 10 punchouts in 8.1 innings just 10 days ago. The Braves come in with a 22.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is slightly better than league average, but deGrom has always done well against the Braves, posting 143 strikeouts in 124.1 innings pitched over the course of his career, per Baseball Reference.
There is very little juice on the over here, and frankly, it's tough to go against a pitcher of deGrom's caliber when he is rolling like this.
Mike Clevinger OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-215)
It's pretty clear the odds on this prop bet aren't great, but it appears to be a "safer" option tonight.
Mike Clevinger is up against the Baltimore Orioles, who have a 23.1% strikeout rate this season, which is the 11th worst in the league. Clevinger only has a few starts under his belt this season due to injuries, but last year he carried a 25.6% strikeout rate and had 9.32 strikeouts per nine innings. Clevinger is a good pitcher, the Orioles are a bad team, so this 5.5 line is a bit low, which is why the odds aren't amazing.
Despite unfavorable odds, we are betting on the fact Clevinger can get back to his old form in a soft matchup and hit the over on a very reasonable 5.5 prop.
Josh Bell To Hit a Home Run (+250)
Sometimes, when looking for a prop bet, things will line up perfectly and you just have to go for it.
The thing that lines up tonight is Josh Bell to hit a home run, something that he has done plenty of in the first half of the season. The matchup he has tonight versus Jhoulys Chacin makes this look like a simple equation -- Bell, a great hitter, plus Chacin, a bad pitcher, equals a home run. Bell is posting a .425 wOBA, .339 ISO, 48.6% hard-hit rate, and a 23.8% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio against right-handed pitchers this season, which has him among the best in the league. Chacin, on the other hand, is allowing 1.57 homers per nine innings, a 50.5% hard-hit rate, and a 36.8% fly-ball rate to lefty hitters.
This one is pretty simple. Add Bell and Chacin together, and you get a Bell home run to cash that prop.
Jorge Soler To Hit a Home Run (+250)
Jorge Soler is a hitter we have highly projected tonight, and he's the 10th-most likely to hit a home run, so his prop is worth considering at solid odds. He has a very powerful .294 ISO versus right-handed pitchers this season, along with a surprising 27.9% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. Those might not be sustainable in the long run, but the matchup tonight versus Sean Reid-Foley is one you don't want to pass up. Foley allowed 1.76 homers per nine innings and a very high 25.0% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio last season versus righty hitters.
Reid-Foley is a young pitcher who is home run prone, and with the power Soler brings, he can easily go deep tonight.