3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Players to Avoid on 6/28/19
Baseball is heating up, and there are plenty of DFS contests to choose from on FanDuel's main slate. While we have plenty of pieces geared towards guys you should target in your DFS contests, it's also important to avoid sub-optimal options who are overpriced and/or in tough spots.
Let's check out three players to consider fading on FanDuel's main slate for June 28.
Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks (SP)
at San Francisco Giants
FanDuel Price: $8,600
Matching up with a San Francisco Giants squad that has been pretty poor in 2019, and playing in San Francisco to boot, Merrill Kelly would seemingly be an easy choice at the pitcher spot. The Giants rank second-worst in team wOBA on the season (.282) and their park is not very hitter-friendly.
But the Giants actually have a surprising amount of momentum as of late -- and that limits Kelly's upside. Over the last two weeks, they have struck out only 21.7% of the time, their fly-ball rate has shot up to 36.8% (10th best), and their 44.6% hard-hit rate clocks in fourth-best.
Fold in a double-digit wind blowing out tonight, and Kelly carries some risk that doesn't seem apparent at first blush.
Mike Fiers, Oakland Athletics (SP)
at Los Angeles Angels
FanDuel Price: $8,300
A double-dip on pitchers to avoid? You got that right, and Mike Fiers seems to be in a really rough spot for tonight's start.
It is true that the veteran right-hander fired a no-hitter earlier this season, but living off that singular accomplishment is a foolish exercise. While he remains the 10th most expensive pitcher on a chock-full main slate, the advanced metrics are ugly -- Fiers has a 16.0% strikeout rate, a career-low, and the fly-baller has taken things up a notch to a 43.1% fly-ball rate. That's contributing to an ugly 5.30 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA).
That fly-ball rate becomes even scarier when you consider that Angel Stadium ranks sixth in home run factor in 2019, and Fiers has allowed 1.43 home runs per nine (HR/9) this season.
Ignore the early season accolades and fade Fiers tonight.
Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies (3B)
vs Los Angeles Dodgers
FanDuel Price: $4,500
Given his prowess against left-handed pitching, the fact that Nolan Arenado is only the fifth-most expensive hitter tonight may be a bit surprising. Peeping his numbers from last season, Arenado dominated his way to a 54.8% hard-hit rate, a 1.199 OPS, and a .420 batting average.
However, he ain't facing an ordinary southpaw tonight. The potential front-runner for the NL Cy Young Award, Hyun-jin Ryu, takes the hill for Los Angeles, and he has dominated righties this season, holding them to a 23.7% fly-ball rate, 24.0% strikeout rate, and .250 wOBA this season.
While the weather is going to be another hot and humid one tonight, it looks like it could have another stiff breeze blowing in, so think long and hard about rostering Arenado.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.