3 MLB FanDuel Studs to Target on 6/28/19
Just like in other sports, the focal point of your daily fantasy baseball lineups will be your high-priced studs. These guys take up by far the biggest chunk of your cap space, but they also offer the highest ceiling, and in the case of pitcher, by far the highest floors for production.
For hitters, we're looking for guys with big numbers, strong matchups, and with players around them that are likely to produce well too, increasing our chances for runs and RBI. For pitchers we want big strikeout numbers, while the ability to go deep in a game and pick up a win is also valuable.
Taking up so much salary, and playing such a big role in your lineup's ceiling, you're not going to want to whiff on these guys, so lets take a look at a few top-end options that you can count on to anchor your lineup today.
Jacob deGrom, P, New York Mets
FanDuel Price: $11,200
It's a steep asking price for Jacob deGrom, especially as only one other pitcher is priced above $9,400 today, but he should be worth the tag in a spot against the Atlanta Braves. deGrom's 3.28 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is second-best among probable pitchers today. (Of note, Mike Clevinger ($9,400) is first at 2.60, but he has three starts to his name this season and just returned from injury.)
Now, the matchup with the Braves is less than ideal. Their active-roster wRC+ against right-handed pitching is 112, but they do still strike out at around the league-average rate (21.5%). This is just more about deGrom's talent -- plus the lack of "stud" pitching options on the slate -- than it is anything else. deGrom has a 30.6% strikeout rate and a 5.1% walk rate and just faced the Braves on the road on June 18th.
In that outing, deGrom, in 8.1 innings, struck out 10 and walked none, generating as much soft contact (35.0%) as hard contact. The swinging-strike rate was a bit lower than we'd love (12.4%), but either way, deGrom is worth paying up for tonight in our cash games.
Joc Pederson, C/1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
FanDuel Price: $4,000
The Los Angeles Dodgers are going to be the chalk stack of the night, and that's fine. Their implied total is north of 7.0 runs in Coors Field. So it's not just Joc Pederson we can target -- (add Cody Bellinger ($5,100), Max Muncy ($4,100), and Alex Verdugo ($3,600)) to the top of the list against Antonio Senzatela.
Senzatela has a 5.51 SIERA to pair with a terribly low 13.1% strikeout rate and a 6.6% swinging-strike rate, and the 24-year-old righty has let up a 38.2% hard-hit rate through 343 batters in 2019. The matchup is primo.
Since the start of 2018, Pederson has a .313 isolated slugging (ISO) against righties, and his strikeout rate is just 19.3%, lower than you may expect from Pederson, a player with a 43.5% hard-hit rate and a 43.5% fly-ball rate against righties.
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals
FanDuel Price: $4,500
Overall, Norris isn't exactly the type of pitcher we should load up on in a full slate, as he has a 4.45 SIERA and a 19.0% strikeout rate. We can typically do a little better than that, but this one is more about the splits. Norris has generated a swinging strike rate of just 9.2% this season, and he always lets up hard contact, particularly to righties. Right-handed batters have secured at least a 40.0% hard-hit rate against Norris in three straight seasons. That power opportunity draws us to the Nationals' righties.
Rendon has posted a .400 wOBA and a 149 wRC+ against lefties since the start of 2018. He also gets lift on 53.0% of his contact and generates hard contact on 45.6% of his batted balls against southpaws. It's not surprising, then, that our algorithm views him as the fifth-most likely hitter to go deep tonight.