Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 12
Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
Brentford vs. Wolves
Brentford are eight places ahead of Wolves in the table, but they are just 3W-5D-4L this season, compared to 2-3-7 for Wolves. Brentford started the year with a draw away to Leicester and then a shocking 4-0 win over Manchester United, but they currently sit squarely in the middle of the table.
Wolves have struggled this season and are currently in the relegation zone, sitting in 19th place, but their expected goal differential (xGD) of -3.1 -- per FBRef -- suggests they could move up in the table soon. Wolves rank 13th in the league in xGD, just two spots behind Brentford, so this game may be much more even than the table suggests.
Brentford have had trouble winning games this season and have settled for draws against bottom-half sides in Leicester, Everton, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth. A draw seems extremely plausible in this game, and getting it at +240 provides potentially great value.
Newcastle vs. Aston Villa
Newcastle to win -125
Newcastle rea having an exciting season and are currently in fourth place, although Chelsea and Manchester United are just below them with a game in hand. Still, the Magpies have just one loss this season and are a legitimate contender for a Champions League spot.
Newcastle have gone 4-1-0 over their last five matches, with dominating wins over Fulham (4-1) and Brentford (5-1) followed by a draw at Old Trafford and one-goal victories against Everton and Spurs.
Aston Villa appear to be a below-average side this season at 3-3-6. They are in 15th place in the table with a -0.4 xGD.
Newcastle should expect to beat bottom-half teams at home, and they should have urgency to win this game to maintain their momentum in the race for Champions League.
Bournemouth vs. Tottenham
Tottenham to win -150
Bournemouth are 3-4-5 this season, which is good enough for 14th place, but they are last in the league in xGD by a large margin at -12.3.
Bournemouth have had success against the middle and lower end of the table, but they have struggled immensely against the top teams in the league. Bournemouth lost 4-0 against Manchester City, 3-0 to Arsenal and 9-0 versus Liverpool. They did draw Newcastle 1-1 but have yet to play the other top teams in Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham.
Tottenham are 3rd in the league at 7-2-3, and Spurs should expect to take care of an inferior Bournemouth team this weekend.