FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 10/29/22
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
Chelsea (+145) at Brighton (+190)
Over 2.5 Goals: +100 | Most Likely to Score: Aubameyang (+175)
Tottenham (-150) at Bournemouth (+420)
Over 2.5 Goals: -106 | Most Likely to Score: Kane (+110)
Southampton (+300) at Crystal Palace (-105)
Over 2.5 Goals: +106 | Most Likely to Score: Mateta/Eduoard (+165)
Aston Villa (+350) at Newcastle (-125)
Over 2.5 Goals: -106 | Most Likely to Score: Wilson (+140)
Wolves (+230) at Brentford (+115)
Over 2.5 Goals: -104 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (+150)
Everton (+210) at Fulham (+130)
Over 2.5 Goals: -110 | Most Likely to Score: Mitrovic (+110)
Leeds (+800) at Liverpool (-340)
Over 2.5 Goals: -280 | Most Likely to Score: Salah (-135)
We have a whopper this week as we get a seven-game slate. Typically, bigger slates result in draft percentages getting spread out. That might not be the case on Saturday because despite us having so many sides to choose from, there's one obvious smash spot -- Liverpool.
Liverpool are -340 home favorites versus Leeds. It's the only match that is better than -110 to go over 2.5 goals, and Liverpool are the only side bigger than a -150 favorite. They are -400 to score twice and -125 to score at least three times. Only one other side is better than -125 to score twice. If you want to stack, Liverpool are the team to load up on.
Whenever the Reds are in a great spot, Mohamed Salah ($23; -135 to score/-270 to score or assist) is going to be popular. The Reds' penalty taker, Salah checks a lot of boxes for DFS, and he could shred a Leeds defense that is reeling. Leeds have shipped eight goals over their past four league games, and three of those fixtures came against Fulham, Palace and Leicester. Liverpool may go nuts, and if they do, Salah -- whose goal and goal-or-assist odds are slate-best marks -- is a safe bet to be involved.
With that said, Darwin Nunez ($20; -120/-220) is a fun pivot if you want to dodge the Salah chalk. Nunez is rounding into form for the Reds and has four goals over his previous four starts in all competitions. It's seemed like the Reds have made it a point to get their big summer signing going. Nunez has been a little goal-or-nothing when it comes to fantasy output, but he's a stellar option in a great matchup.
Roberto Firmino ($22; +105/-185) will likely join Nunez and Salah in a front three. He can be deployed as a stacking partner for either, or he can be used instead of Salah and Nunez. With a salary just $1 less than Salah's, Firmino isn't going to be super chalky.
Spurs are the other standout side, per the betting numbers. Tottenham are -150 to win at Bournemouth and are -142 to go over 1.5 goals -- both of which rank second on the slate. The issue with Spurs is that they haven't been all that good lately, but a matchup with the Cherries could be the perfect remedy. Bournemouth have faced three big-six sides this year and got hammered by all of them, giving up nine goals to Liverpool, four to City and three to Arsenal.
Harry Kane ($21; +110/-160) and Son Heung-min ($19; +135/-155) are the obvious top plays for Spurs, and if the masses stack Salah and another high-salary Liverpool stud, they might have trouble getting to one of Kane or Son. It's almost always the same with these two. Kane's penalty duties make him the better play, but he figures to be more popular than Son and is higher in salary. You can make a strong case for either.
After Liverpool and Spurs, the slate is pretty well-balanced across the board. The sides I most want a piece of are Newcastle and Fulham. The Magpies are -125 to win at home versus Villa while Fulham are slim +130 home favorites against Everton.
Aleksandar Mitrovic ($20; +110/+135) is one of the slate's premier plays. He's averaging 27.1 FanDuel points per match for the campaign and has bagged a goal in all but three of Fulham's league matches this season. He'll be on pens and should have a few chances to make the net bulge against Everton, a side that's conceded at least 1.5 expected goals (xG) in four of their last five matches, per FBRef.
For Newcastle, Callum Wilson ($17; +140/+100) has the Magpies' best goal and goal-or-assist odds. Wilson got a goal last time out and has netted four in eight EPL appearances this season. Newcastle are looking like a real top-four threat this season, and Wilson is making a push to get into the England squad for the upcoming World Cup. Motivation shouldn't be an issue for him or his team.
Added time -- The Brighton-Chelsea match is only +100 to go over 2.5 goals, making it a potential drag for DFS, but Chelsea's key guys are capable of popping at low draft percentages. The match's top goal odds belong to Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($18; +175/+115). ... Ivan Toney ($18; +150/-120) is worth a long look at home versus a struggling Wolves side. He's flashed massive upside this season. ... Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($15; +190/+140) carries solid goal odds at a reasonable salary. ... Salaried up among the Tottenham and Liverpool stars, Wilfried Zaha ($19; +180/-105) is going to go overlooked, but he could be a savvy leverage play in tournaments. ... Harvey Elliott ($14; +230/+100) is emerging for Liverpool and is a low-salary way to get a piece of the slate's biggest favorite.
Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold ($14; +130 goal/assist) and Andrew Robertson ($11; +165) are superb options. Both have nice goal/assist odds and should get forward plenty versus Leeds. I love the idea of stacking Robertson with Nunez. Trent, of course, offers corner and free-kick upside, as usual.
Tottenham's Ivan Perisic ($10; +160) and Ryan Sessegnon ($9; +160) are easy to like at their salaries. The matchup with Bournemouth is a good one, and they make for sweet stacking partners with Son or Kane. Perisic had an assist midweek in the Champions League, and he created four chances against Everton the last time Spurs faced a team in the bottom half of the table.
Chelsea's Ben Chilwell ($8; +440) comes at a value salary. He's been quiet in fantasy since scoring a goal in early September, but he's shown a big-time ceiling previously.
Leeds' backline will likely be under siege at Anfield. Pascal Struijk ($13) is averaging 16.0 FanDuel points for the year, and he produced 17.1 FanDuel points the last time Leeds saw big-six opposition. Diego Llorente ($10), Robin Koch ($9) and Rasmus Kristensen ($11) all offer decent floors.
Added time -- Bournemouth's Adam Smith ($8) is listed as an expected starter in a back-three. He should be busy against Spurs and is a quality low-salary pick. .... Newcastle's Kieran Trippier ($14; +270) handles some corner and free-kick responsibilities and has been outstanding in DFS this year, putting up 18.9 FanDuel points per match. ... Tyrick Mitchell ($8) will have opportunities to get forward at home against Southampton.
The two goalies with the best win odds and clean-sheet chances are Tottenham's Hugo Lloris ($13) and Liverpool's Alisson ($14). They are also the two highest-salaried keepers.
Alisson is up against a Leeds attack that has failed to score a goal in three of their past five league matches. Liverpool, though, have given up at least 1.2 xG in three straight outings despite allowing only one goal in that span. With that said, this is undoubtedly an excellent matchup for Alisson, who is +150 to keep a clean sheet and -340 to win.
Tottenham's recent form -- which has seen them surrender five total goals over their previous three fixtures in all competitions -- might scare away some people from using Lloris, but he can come through in this matchup. Bournemouth have been blanked in three of their past five matches and haven't scored a goal in any of their three meetings with a big-six foe this season. Lloris' +137 clean-sheet odds pace the slate, and Spurs are -150 to win.
I like both of Nick Pope ($12) and David Raya ($11), too. Pope is +160 to keep a clean sheet against Villa, a side that had failed to score in three of four matches prior to a four-goal outburst last time out. Raya gets Wolves at home. He's +190 to keep a clean sheet. Wolves have mustered just two goals over their last six matches. Both can be stacked with an attacker, too -- Pope with Wilson and Raya with Toney.
Vicente Guaita ($12) is worth mentioning, as well. He's at home against Southampton and is +155 to notch a clean sheet. I have him a bit below Pope and Raya, though, because Palace have permitted seven goals across their past five EPL matches.
Added time -- If you need to save salary, Gavin Bazunu ($8) isn't a bad dart throw. Palace have been shut out in two of their past three games. ... Bernd Leno ($10) has a mouth-watering home date with Everton, but he's just +220 to keep a clean sheet. ... Kepa Arrizabalga ($11) and Robert Sanchez ($9) could come good in the Brighton-Chelsea clash. Both attacks generate plenty of chances but sometimes struggle to cash in.