FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 2/12/22
Crystal Palace (+190) at Brentford (+165)
Over 2.5 Goals: +140 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (+165)
Leeds (+195) at Everton (+130)
Over 2.5 Goals: -156 | Most Likely to Score: Calvert-Lewin (+115)
Brighton (+110) at Watford (+270)
Over 2.5 Goals: +132 | Most Likely to Score: Maupay (+160)
Manchester City (-650) at Norwich City (+1700)
Over 2.5 Goals: -235 | Most Likely to Score: Mahrez (-115)
If you take a quick glance at the matchups, you'll figure out that Manchester City are very clearly the side we need to be on, but when you break down the actual numbers, it's pretty wild.
City are -650 favorites on a four-match slate where no other side is better than +110 to win. City are -650 to score at least twice. The next-best odds to score two-plus goals belong to Everton, and they're just -115 to do so. Pep Guardiola's bunch has better odds than that -- -145 to be exact -- to score at least three times.
So, in short, you need City exposure, and you need lots of it. Dedicating three attacking slots to City players is firmly on the table. Heck, you could even use four City attackers if you wanted to go all in.
As is usually the case with City, they offer us a plethora of options, and anyone who starts at forward or midfield for them has to be on our radar. Riyad Mahrez ($18; -115) has City's top goal odds, and he appears to be locked in as their first-choice penalty taker, cashing one midweek when Kevin De Bruyne ($21; +170) was on the pitch. That's a big deal, obviously, and it makes Mahrez very easy to like at his salary.
Of course, KDB is KDB, and he's always worth a look. The Belgian star would likely be on penalties if Mahrez doesn't start. Raheem Sterling ($19; +100) and Phil Foden ($19; +135) started up front alongside Mahrez in City's last match. Bernardo Silva ($18; +165), Jack Grealish ($17; +165) and Ilkay Gundogan ($16; +195) are viable options if they're in the starting XI.
While City will be chalky as all get out, they're chalk worth swallowing. The lone negative with them -- other than how popular they'll be -- is that City play in the slate's only late match, so we won't know their starting lineup when the rest of the slate locks. That's not ideal, but City offer enough quality options that you should be able to make it work salary-wise no matter how they line up.
This slate will be won and lost on being right on which City players you roster and nailing the goals from the other matches.
Everton -- who are -115 to score at least two goals -- are the other side I want to make sure I get a piece of, and I'd like that piece to be Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($20; +115).
The Toffees are flirting with a relegation battle, and they have a crucial home matchup with Leeds, another side hovering near the bottom three. Leeds are typically a fantastic matchup for DFS, and we saw that play out midweek in their 3-3 draw at Aston Villa. This match is -156 to go over 2.5 goals.
The hangup with Calvert-Lewin is that he's not a lock to start. DCL didn't get off the bench midweek at Newcastle, but if he's in the starting lineup Saturday, I'm really into him. Calvert-Lewin is +115 to score, which is the best goal odds -- by some distance -- outside of City players, and he can thrive versus a Leeds defense that has shipped 25 goals over their last nine matches across all competitions.
If DCL doesn't start -- or even if he does -- Richarlison ($18; +145) is a fine alternative. The Brazilian has four goals and two assists on the campaign, including two goals over his last four matches. Dele Alli ($15; +300) will probably start and isn't a bad roll of the dice.
The other two matches aren't all that fun from a DFS perspective, but on a four-match slate, we need to dig into them.
Brentford are +165 to beat Palace in a match that's just +140 to go over 2.5 goals. Ivan Toney ($17; +165) -- who trained Friday after missing the Bees' midweek match -- is the best play on Brentford. He'll be on penalties and has tallied six league goals this year while no other Bees player has more than three. If Toney is out, Bryan Mbeumo ($16; +350) is a decent fall-back option.
Lastly, Brighton are +110 to take three points at Watford. The match is only +132 to go over 2.5 goals. Brighton's top goal odds belong to Neal Maupay ($17; +160) while Leandro Trossard ($16; +290) has some appeal if he's fit to start.
Among the underdogs, Leeds' style and matchup against an out-of-form Everton make them the best side to zero in on.
Everton haven't kept a clean sheet since November 7th and just got torn apart by Newcastle, so Leeds are capable of notching a goal or two. Raphinha ($19; +240) is always a threat, and Dan James ($17; +320) has been starting in a number-nine role with Patrick Bamford out, scoring twice midweek at Villa Park. In said match versus Aston Villa, Rodrigo ($15; +250) was lively throughout and comes at a modest salary.
Added time -- Rodri ($12; +700) is a low-salary dart who should start for City. He'll almost surely be their lowest-salaried midfield/forward option. While he doesn't often contribute to a goal from his holding role, City's likely dominance of the ball could allow him to get forward a little more than usual. ... Watford's Joao Pedro ($14; +440) is a value option who could hit, and we need to save salary somewhere on this slate to get to the City players we want. ... Odsonne Edouard ($16; +210) boasts the best goal odds on Palace.
While Joao Cancelo ($15) is a superb play and offers top-shelf attacking upside, I'm going to be looking to save some coin at defender in order to be able to roster multiple high-salary attackers from City, so he won't be a priority for me. He is, however, +550 to score anytime and has the top ceiling at the position on this slate.
Norwich center-backs Grant Hanley ($12) and Ben Gibson ($11) offer high floors as they should be under attack early and often against Man City. Gibson had 14.3 FanDuel points in the reverse fixture at City earlier this season while Hanley put up 17.3 in a similar kind of matchup against Liverpool.
Kyle Walker ($7) or Oleksandr Zinchenko ($9) starting for City would be really nice. Zinchenko offers more going forward than Walker does and is listed at +500 to score. Both have great clean-sheet odds. Walker is the safer bet to start between the two of them.
Tariq Lamptey ($8) is one of my favorite defender plays on this slate. He's an attack-minded full-back in a friendly matchup at Watford, and the salary is appealing. Admittedly, Lamptey's FanDuel outputs have been extremely blah of late, but he's a capable value target if he starts.
Added time -- Pascal Struijk ($8) and Robin Koch ($8) should be among the lowest-salaried starting defenders, although Koch could be deployed in midfield. Playing at Everton, they will likely be fairly busy, and Struijk has scored at least 14.3 FanDuel points in two of his last three starts. ... Norwich full-back Brandon Williams ($8) has posted at least 12.8 FanDuel points in three straight outings and will be under siege. ... Seamus Coleman ($9) started at wing-back for Everton last game and would be a nice option in a good matchup with Leeds if he's there again.
Ederson ($14) is the best goalie play if you have the salary to get to him. As we laid out at the jump, City have by far the best win odds (-650), and their -130 clean-sheet odds lap the field, as well. What Ederson will likely lack in save volume, he can more than compensate for with a clean-sheet win.
After Ederson, it's hard to have much conviction about anyone.
The numbers point to Brighton's Robert Sanchez ($12). At +110 to win, Brighton have the slate's second-best win odds, and Sanchez's +150 clean-sheet chances are also the next-best clip after Ederson's odds. On the negative, Brighton's usually solid defense hasn't kept a clean sheet in any of their last five matches.
The next-best clean sheet odds come from the goalies in the Palace-Brentford clash -- Jonas Lossl ($10) and Vicente Guaita ($10). Lossl and the Bees are +184 to blank Palace and +165 to win, giving him an edge over Guaita. With that said, if Toney is out for Brentford, I'll lean Guaita between these two. The numbers are close as is, with Guaita +190 to win and +200 to keep a clean sheet.
Added time -- Norwich's Angus Gunn ($6) frees up a lot of salary and is basically a lock for gobs of save volume. While Gunn could score in the negative against City, he could also record a solid output if he can make several saves and keep the damage to just one or two goals. ... Jordan Pickford ($11) isn't going to see much of a draft percentage at his salary, but Leeds have failed to score in two of their last four matches. Everton, however, are just +290 to keep a clean sheet.