Super Bowl LVI Prop Bet Simulations: Most Passing, Rushing, and Receiving Yards

There are really no shortage of betting options on Super Bowl LVI at FanDuel Sportsbook.

But it can get a little overwhelming because there are a lot of new markets that we don't really see throughout the regular season. Even if you're always betting receiving yardage props, you're likely not digging into game-leader yardage options.

No worries, though.

We've got you covered.

I went ahead and simulated out the big game 10,000 times based on numberFire's projections to see where we can gain an edge this weekend.

Most Passing Yards

Most Passing YardsnumberFire
Matthew Stafford277.8-114
Joe Burrow274.2-106

The median projection for Matthew Stafford (277.8) and Joe Burrow (274.8) are virtually identical, and that's reflected in the close odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Both the projections and odds have Stafford as the slight favorite.

But when played out over 10,000 iterations, Stafford did wind up leading the game at a 54.2% rate, implying odds of -118.

Though there isn't a ton of value on this prop, the data does suggest leaning toward Stafford, whose downfield passing demise is overstated.

Most Rushing Yards

Most Rushing Yards numberFire
Joe Mixon 75.9 -105
Cam Akers 70.1 +100
Sony Michel 28.6 +900
Joe Burrow 17.6 +10000
Samaje Perine 4.2 +10000
Ja'Marr Chase 5.8 +10000
Matthew Stafford 9.3 +30000

With reasons to be a little wary on the overall role of Cam Akers, it's no wonder that Joe Mixon is the betting favorite to lead Super Bowl LVI in rushing yards.

He's also projected by numberFire to lead the game with Akers within six yards of his total projection. There's a huge tier drop to the rest, however.

It's no surprise, then, that Mixon and Akers surge ahead of the pack in odds of leading this game.

Mixon led in rushing yards in 51.9% of the simulated versions of Super Bowl LVI. Akers did so in 40.7%.

That does put Mixon's odds of -105 into slight value territory. Akers not so much.

The chalk is likely the right call in this one. Side with Mixon.

Most Receiving Yards

Most Receiving Yards numberFire
Cooper Kupp 109.4 -120
Ja'Marr Chase 86.9 +340
Tee Higgins 68.7 +600
Odell Beckham 54.7 +1100
Joe Mixon 23.7 +2500
Tyler Boyd 42.5 +2500
Tyler Higbee 34.8 +2500
Van Jefferson 35.0 +2500
C.J. Uzomah 29.8 +2500
Kendall Blanton 9.9 +2500
Drew Sample 4.3 +2800
Samaje Perine 9.6 +10000
Chris Evans 3.9 +10000
Ben Skowronek 9.1 +10000
Cam Akers 13.1 +10000
Darrell Henderson 3.9 +15000
Sony Michel 8.0 +15000

We once again have a chalky option for most receiving yards, and that's Cooper Kupp, who is projected for 109.4 yards as a baseline, which is wild.

Ja'Marr Chase (86.9), Tee Higgins (68.7), and Odell Beckham (54.7) round out the others with a projection of 50-plus yards.

The simulations, though, don't really show value on just siding with Kupp. Yes, he's rating out as 49.8% likely to lead the slate in receiving yards, but that's not enough for -120 odds.

Instead, there's value on Ja'Marr Chase, who is 25.1% likely to lead, implying odds of right around +300. There's some extra value there at +340.

If looking for a longer shot, Tee Higgins is the obvious next move, though he does underperform the +600 odds in the simulations.