FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 2/12/22
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for EPL DFS. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features four matches. All betting lines come from EPL odds, and they may change after the article is published.
Crystal Palace (+190) at Brentford (+165)
Over 2.5 Goals: +140 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (+165)
Leeds (+190) at Everton (+135)
Over 2.5 Goals: -154 | Most Likely to Score: Calvert-Lewin (+120)
Brighton (+110) at Watford (+280)
Over 2.5 Goals: +136 | Most Likely to Score: Maupay (+160)
Manchester City (-650) at Norwich (+1700)
Over 2.5 Goals: -220 | Most Likely to Score: Mahrez (-115)
Matchweek 25 features one big-six side on a four-game slate, with Manchester City on the road against Norwich. Predictably, City (-650 to win) is the largest favorite on the slate, and Riyad Mahrez ($18) has the best odds to score (-115) of anyone expected to be active on Saturday.
Brighton (+110 to win) are the second-biggest favorite while Everton (+135 to win) and Brentford (+165 to win) round out the slate as slight home favorites.
Saturday has all the makings of a classic Manchester City slate. City are heavily favored to win, their stars will be popular, and they consist of four of the five highest-salaried players in the forward/midfielder pool. They are undefeated in their last 11 fixtures across all competitions and have just one loss and one draw since the start of November.
Norwich has turned things around recently, with two wins and a draw in their last three fixtures, but they are conceding a league-worst 2 goals per match this season. Fading the defending champions here is a risky decision, to say the least.
With that in mind, here are two players to consider on this slate -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Leandro Tossard, FWD/MID, Brighton
FanDuel Salary: $16
Tossard is expected to be available on Saturday after testing positive for COVID-19 last week. While there is a risk that his minutes could be reduced if he isn't fully fit, Tossard finds himself in a decent spot to produce against a Watford side that has conceded the fourth-most goals in the league so far this season.
Tossard has just three goals scored this season, and none since the start of the new year, but it hasn't been for lack of trying. Over his current four-game goal-scoring drought, he has produced 10 shots and created 4 chances. His 2.5 shots per game ranks 9th-best in the league this season, while his 4 goals scored are tied for 45th-best. A meeting with a Watford side on an 11-match winless streak could provide him with the perfect opportunity to convert his usual opportunities into goals.
With a salary of $16, Tossard falls into a salary range that may make him difficult to include in lineups that roster multiple stars from Manchester City. That, combined with his minor goal-scoring drought and Brighton's three-match winless streak, could allow him to fly under the radar this weekend despite his consistent involvement in the final third.
If Tossard starts the match on the bench, consider Pascal Groß ($13) or Yves Bissouma ($12), who could also take advantage of an excellent matchup against Watford.
Dele Alli, FWD/MID, Everton
FanDuel Salary: $15
Saturday's clash with Leeds will see two sides go head-to-head that have issues keeping the ball out of their net. Everton hasn't kept a clean sheet since a draw with Tottenham in November, while Leeds has gone nine consecutive matches without a shutout, allowing an average of 2.9 goals per fixture over that stretch. Despite Everton's poor form, there should be plenty of opportunities in the final third against Leeds, and there could certainly be goals to be had for both sides in this one.
Following his move from Tottenham in January, Alli made his first appearance for Everton on Tuesday, coming on a substitute and recording 13.8 FanDuel points in 65 minutes. It has been a long time since Alli has demonstrated the skills and production that made him a star for Tottenham from 2017-19, but a move to a new club and a meeting with Leeds provides him with an excellent opportunity to get back on track.
His salary of $15 places him in the same mid-range as Tossard and should further reduce his draft percentage. At +300, Alli's anytime goal-scoring odds are better than Daniel James ($17) (+320 to score), who could be popular following his brace against Aston Villa on Wednesday.
Consider pairing Alli with an attacking option from Leeds to capitalize on the dismal defensive records of both sides in this clash.