NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 6/22/21

The two series favorites, the Vegas Golden Knights and Tampa Bay Lightning, continue to be favored on a nightly basis. But, as we've seen in our projections, the lines continue to shift too far in their favor, creating a near nightly play on the underdog. That is once again the case today, as the Montreal Canadiens try to take the series lead before heading back to Montreal for Game 6.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Montreal Canadiens

Canadiens moneyline (+205): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

Montreal has been the better team throughout this series, outplaying the Golden Knights in three of four games. They're finding a way through the Knights' defensive structure, attempting 10 or more high-danger chances at five-on-five in three straight games while averaging 11.9 such attempts per game this series.

The Canadiens have also been effective at limiting Vegas' chances, as the Golden Knights attempted a playoff-low two high-danger chances in Game 4, making it the third time in four games that they were held to nine or fewer high-danger opportunities and 21 or fewer scoring chances. The Habs continue to get the better of the Knights on both ends of the ice.

Vegas keeps finding ways to win games despite getting outplayed in nearly every outing. The Knights have won four of their last six even though they've put up an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in five of those six games. Consequently, their PDO is 1.042 over the six-game sample, putting the Knights on a collision course with regression.

Lastly, the T-Mobile Arena isn't the safe haven it was once for the Knights. Vegas has been outplayed in four of nine home games, and they are skating around with an actual goals-for percentage above their expected output, which puts them at risk of regression hitting at an inopportune time.

In reconciling our projections with the betting lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, there's an advantage in backing the Habs in tonight's affair. We rate it as a one-star play.