MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 6/22/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 7.0 (-122): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Despite a 14-game evening slate, our model rates only one bet as more than a two-star wager. This is that bet.
The pitching matchup is a pretty good one, as we've got Charlie Morton versus Marcus Stroman. While that doesn't immediately make you think of a bunch of runs being scored, our projections have these two teams combining for 8.50 runs -- 1.5 more than the line.
Stroman's numbers are really good in his first full season in Queens. He's pitched to a 3.66 SIERA and 22.2% strikeout rate, with the strikeout rate being a career-best clip. But Stroman has had some luck on his side, as his .262 BABIP is well below his .304 career average. He's up against a Atlanta Braves offense that is 10th in wOBA over the last 30 days (.316).
It's tougher to make a case for the New York Mets to have a lot of success against Morton, who owns a 3.75 SIERA and 26.2% strikeout rate. But once Morton is out of the game, the Mets will take their hacks against a Braves bullpen that sits ninth-worst in SIERA (4.06).
Per our oddsFire tool, there's a sliver of sharp money on the over -- with 58% of the tickets and 62% of the money backing the over. Our model projects a 4.32-4.18 win for the Braves, and we have the over hitting 57.8% of the time.
Over 8.5 (-114): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Skubal has made strides from 2020 to 2021, checking in with a 4.09 SIERA and 27.8% strikeout rate. The issue for Skubal today is that the Cards have some right-handed bats who do work versus southpaws -- namely Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Yadier Molina and Tyler O'Neill. On top of that, Detroit's 4.20 bullpen SIERA is the fourth-worst clip.
Oviedo gets a friendly matchup against a Detroit offense that is one of the game's worst, but he hasn't been good this season. Ovideo holds a 4.98 SIERA, 18.7% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate this year. And he's worked past the sixth inning only once, so we should see plenty of a Cardinals bullpen that has a league-worst 4.62 SIERA.
Our model forecasts this game as a 4.95-4.67 victory for the Cards. That's 9.62 total runs, and we give the over a 59.5% chance to win out. The public is on the over, too, as 59% of the bets and 62% of the money are on that side of the total.