3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 6/22/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Zack Wheeler Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+130)
Zack Wheeler is on fire this season with 118 punchouts over 96 1/3 innings. His 2.15 ERA and 0.934 WHIP are career-best marks -- as is his 31.6% strikeout rate.
The Philadelphia Phillies have been fortunate to have him pitching at a top level. Wheeler just struck out eight Washington Nationals earlier this month at home. Over his last six outings, he has four starts in which he's struck out 10-plus batters.
The Nats' 23.1% strikeout rate is roughly league average, but they're striking out at a 24.4% clip the last 14 days.
Our model has Wheeler at 7.0 punchouts, but I'm more bullish on him and like taking the over at the +130 price.
Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+320)
It may seem crazy, but Kyle Schwarber has 18 home runs already (in just 61 games) for Washington. He had 11 all of last year in 59 games. His rate of a home run every 12.4 at-bats is ridiculous. He's got a .424 wOBA and nine homers in 73 plate appearances in June.
While Schwarber's matchup is a tough one versus the aforementioned Wheeler, he could easily pop a homer today. Against righties this season, Schwarber has put up a .379 wOBA and 17 jacks in 178 plate appearances.
As excellent as Wheeler has been, he has allowed three home runs over his last five starts.
At +320, Schwarber isn't a bad bet to go yard.
Gerrit Cole Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Gerrit Cole is up against the Kansas City Royals on Tuesday night.
The last few starts have seen Cole a bit all over the place when it comes to strikeouts. It does not take too much away from his body of work, which features a rate of 11.7 punchouts per nine. And Cole did have 16 strikeouts across his previous two starts before a four-strikeout outing against the Toronto Blue Jays in his last start.
KC has been very tough to strike out in 2021, with the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league (21.8%). But Cole has the sixth-highest strikeout rate (34.6%) among all pitchers, and his 14.6% swinging-strike rate is a stellar clip.
We project Cole for 8.15 strikeouts. Given the +120 price on the over, that's where I lean.
