3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Divisional Round Sunday
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Deebo Samuel Any Time Touchdown (+140)
The 49ers are rocking a 25.0-point implied total and have plenty of offensive options that can help them reach or exceed that mark. My favorite prop is Deebo Samuel any time touchdown (+140) due to the role and usage he has in their offense.
From the simple eye test, it's clear that head coach Kyle Shannahan makes it a point to get Samuel the ball in any way he can. We saw some of that on display last week, when Samuel had three rushing attempts on top of his nine targets (six receptions). Passing targets, rushes, jet sweeps, or bubble screens, the 49ers want to get Samuel the ball.
This type of usage is very enticing since it gives Samuel a chance to make plays in a variety of ways, regardless of the game environment. If they are leading, it's likely due to Samuel being involved, and if they are trailing, he will be getting touches in the passing game.
Samuel has played on 76.0% of the snaps this season and has a route on 85.2% of drop backs. He owns a 24.3% target share and a 22.4% red zone target share.
I say all of this and haven't mentioned the fact the Cowboys allowed the ninth-most (2,663) receiving yards and the most (22) touchdowns to wide receivers this season.
Samuel is a clear priority in the 49ers' offense and has a great matchup this week, which should allow him to find the end zone.
Devin Singletary Under 39.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
The Bills are hosting the Cincinnati Bengals with a big 49.5-point total and a close 5.5-point spread in favor of the home team. The Bills have a split backfield, with Singletary and James Cook both seeing plenty of touches. With that lack of clarity, I want under 39.5 rushing yards for Singletary.
Over the last three games for the Bills -- one playoff game and two regular-season matchups -- Singletary has seen a total of 29 rushing attempts for 183 yards, compared to 32 rushing attempts for 183 yards for Cook. They have nearly the same role, which isn't a good thing.
Neither player is a clear leader is this backfield, with Singletary holding a 47.6% rush share rate and Cook at a 43.2% rush share rate. This is a coin flip, and if Singletary doesn't have the hot hand, he likely won't see enough touches to rack up 40-plus rushing yards.
Not to mention the fact the Bengals allowed only 1,311 rushing yards to running backs this season, which was the fourth-fewest in the league.
Singletary shouldn't see a significant amount of touches and will likely struggle to rack up the yards against a tough defense.
Ezekiel Elliott Under 34.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Finally, under 34.5 rushing yards for Ezekiel Elliott.
This follows the same line of thinking as the Singletary prop listed above. Elliott is in a touch timeshare with Tony Pollard, who is simply the better and more effective running back for the Cowboys.
In three of the last five weeks, Pollard has been more effective than Zeke on a per-touch basis and in terms of total rushing yards. This has led to Elliott finishing with fewer than 40 rushing yards in each of his last three games, including fewer than 30 rushing yards in the last two.
Add in a matchup against the 49ers' rush defense, and it simply doesn't spell good things for either guy in the ground game. The 49ers allowed 1,014 rushing yards to opposing running backs, which was the fewest in the NFL this season.
Zeke is back who has been ineffective on the ground and who is up against the toughest possible matchup for running backs. That leads me to under 34.5 rushing yards this week.