Divisional Round NFL Power Rankings, Presented by GMC
Everyone has their own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them take computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do just that.
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Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all eight remaining playoff teams.
numberFire's NFL Power Rankings
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Super Bowl Odds |
xWin% This Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 13-3 | 9.84 | 1 | 0 | 20.3% | 64.5% |
| Chiefs | 14-3 | 9.35 | 2 | 0 | 23.2% | 69.0% |
| 49ers | 13-4 | 9.26 | 3 | 0 | 18.6% | 64.9% |
| Bengals | 12-4 | 8.50 | 4 | 0 | 10.7% | 35.5% |
| Eagles | 14-3 | 8.41 | 5 | 0 | 15.4% | 68.1% |
| Cowboys | 12-5 | 7.90 | 6 | 0 | 9.8% | 35.1% |
| Jaguars | 9-8 | 1.79 | 8 | 0 | 1.1% | 31.0% |
| Giants | 9-7-1 | -0.26 | 17 | 4 | 0.9% | 31.9% |
Only one team -- the New York Giants -- moved any spots at all in our power rankings from a week ago, yet they're still the lone squad with a negative nERD score.
The four games this week are all projected to be around 65/35 or 70/30 matchups, and that's continuing the trend of elevated Super Bowl championship odds for a select few teams.
At the top of the list, we have the Buffalo Bills ranking first in nERD but second in Super Bowl probability behind the Kansas City Chiefs, who are more likely to win this week (69.0%) than Buffalo (64.5%).
The Cincinnati Bengals hold 10.7% Super Bowl odds, up 1.3 points from last week.
The Jacksonville Jaguars' odds effectively doubled from 0.5% to 1.1%. They're still long shots in the AFC and will have to get through two of the top four teams in the NFL, by our metrics, to reach the Super Bowl with a chance of facing three top-four opponents the rest of the way if the San Francisco 49ers reach the championship.
Speaking of those 49ers, their impressive streak continues with Brock Purdy under center, and they're clearly the class of the NFC, according to nERD. Despite their status as the 2 seed, they hold the best Super Bowl odds (18.6%) in the conference.
At least one team from the NFC East is guaranteed a spot in the NFC Championship game as the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants square up for the third time this season. Dallas, set to visit the Niners, lays claim to the only substantial Super Bowl odds shift from last week: +4.9 points.
The Giants looked strong in the wild card round but did so against a Vikings team that our model never fully loved, thus the small bump for them (from 0.6% to 0.9% to win it all).
While anything can happen in the playoffs, the trio of the Bills, Chiefs, and Bengals are 54.2% likely to be crowned Super Bowl champions this season.
