4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 15
Stacks are usually the backbone of the best FanDuel lineups, especially in tournaments. Brandon Gdula's piece examining hit rates and correlation for stacks is a must-read article whether you're already familiar with stacking or new to the concept.
This piece will lay out my favorite weekly stacks. So, read on to see the stacks I'm firing up this week.
Los Angeles Chargers
This is the dream layout for Herbert and Williams. The Los Angeles Chargers use a pass-heavy offense, and the Tennessee Titans have a pass-funnel defense. In neutral game scripts since Week 8, the Chargers have attempted 218 passes and 92 rushes by non-quarterbacks. Conversely, teams facing the Titans have attempted 85 rushes by non-quarterbacks and 199 passes when using the same parameters.
Herbert should be busy against a lousy pass defense. According to our team power rankings, the Titans have the sixth-worst pass defense. Herbert enters this contest on fire and is ready to cook. He's passed for more than 330 yards in back-to-back games and shined when he's had at least one of his top wideouts this year. In 11 games when Williams or Keenan Allen played a full allotment of snaps, Herbert has averaged 295.5 passing yards per game with 19 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Herbert is a monster when he has weapons at his disposal, and last week was the first time this year he had all of his playmakers.
Fortunately, Big Mike wasn't an afterthought on a fully-healthy offense in Week 14. Instead, he had six receptions for 116 yards and one touchdown and the second-most air yards (83) on the club. Williams is a perfect matchup fit for this contest. The field-stretching wideout can exploit Tennessee's secondary, one that's struggled mightily to defend deep passes. Since Week 8, Tennessee's opponents have completed 16 of 39 pass attempts that traveled at least 20 air yards for 499 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception.
Moreover, perimeter wideouts have killed the Titans. According to The 33rd Team and the data from Sports Info Solutions (SIS), the Titans have allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game to perimeter wide receivers. And, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Williams has played 84.2 percent of his passing snaps aligned wide.
The betting info is good. Chargers have the fourth-highest implied total (24.75) on FanDuel's Sunday main slate, and the game's spread is just 3.0 points.
New York Jets-Detroit Lions
I loved Moore's outlook this week when I thought Mike White would play through his injury. Sadly, White has been ruled out, creating more risk for using Moore. However, Corey Davis is also out, paving the way to full-time snaps for Moore. The second-year wideout should remain on the field in two-receiver personnel groupings and kick into the slot in three-wideout sets.
Zach Wilson has struggled mightily this year, but I'm leaning into the matchup for Moore from the slot. Wide receivers in the slot have scored the most FanDuel points per game against the Detroit Lions since Week 8. Thankfully, even with the quarterback downgrade, the numberFire projection algorithm still projects Moore favorably. Moore has the 16th-highest value score -- the measure of points per $1,000 of FanDuel salary -- among wide receivers.
St. Brown is the A-side of this game stack despite a nasty matchup against the New York Jets. The Sun God is incredible, though. He can rise above a poor matchup. In ARSB's eight healthy contests this year, he's had an eye-popping 29.7 percent target share, 77 receptions, 876 receiving yards, 635 air yards, 6 touchdowns, 7 rushes, and 89 rushing yards. ARSB has also shined in PFF's metrics, earning a target on 31 percent of his routes and tallying 2.66 yards per route run in the eight-game sample.
There's some potential for the challenging matchup to depress St. Brown's draft percentage, making him more appealing in tournaments. The projection is promising, too. St. Brown is projected as the WR6 on Sunday's main slate, per our model.
Jacksonville Jaguars-Dallas Cowboys
Etienne has been in a rut. He's had fewer than 75 scrimmage yards and zero touchdowns in each of his previous four games. During that stretch, he missed almost the entire contest in Week 12 because of a foot injury. Otherwise, Etienne's playing time and usage have been encouraging.
He's had snap shares of 87.27 percent and 74.63 percent in two subsequent games after his foot injury, assuaging any concerns about the injury being significant. Etienne has touched the ball 16 and 17 times in the past two games, and, per PFF, he ran 51 routes. Backup running back JaMycal Hasty ran only nine. Thus, Etienne is a legitimate feature back.
Sadly, the matchup is challenging this week, yet the Dallas Cowboys have had a few slip-ups when defending the run this season. Most recently, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon creamed them for 203 rushing yards and a touchdown on 37 attempts and added two receptions for 18 yards. Jonathan Taylor recorded 103 scrimmage yards against Dallas in Week 13, and Dameon Pierce had 78 rushing yards and a touchdown last week.
The Cowboys aren't perfect against running backs, and Etienne has a high ceiling. The explosive boom-or-bust running back had five straight games from Week 5 through Week 9 when he eclipsed 100 scrimmage yards in each contest and scored four touchdowns. Etienne projects as the RB10 and is tied for the seventh-highest value score among running backs on this slate. We should mix Etienne into tournament lineups.
Lamb is the more exciting option in this game stack, though. The third-year wideout had his worst fantasy performance of the year in Week 14. But Lamb has a mouthwatering bounce-back matchup this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars have coughed up the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to slot wideouts since Week 8, and Lamb has aligned in the slot on 59.6 percent of his passing snaps in that split.
In addition, Lamb isn't merely an average slot wideout. He's an elite player and is Dak Prescott's preferred passing-game option. Prescott has attempted 251 passes this year, and Lamb had a 26.3 percent target share, 43 receptions, 581 receiving yards, 684 air yards, and four touchdown receptions on Prescott's throws.
The betting info is excellent. The Cowboys have the third-highest implied total (26.00 points) on Sunday's slate, and the game's spread is just 4.0 points, creating a potential shootout environment. As a result, we project Lamb as the WR4, and he's tied for the third-highest value score at the position. Lamb is a top-shelf choice in all game types.
Foreman was included in my values plays piece this week, and he is still one of my favorite values. The bruising runner should have a good game script for toting the rock a ton against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
And, of course, a good game script for Foreman would be ideal for Carolina's defense, too. In their previous four games, the Panthers have forced six turnovers and recorded 14 sacks. They also held three of those opponents to 15 or fewer points.
The Panthers shouldn't have much difficulty against Pittsburgh's comically bad offense. According to Pro Football Reference, the Steelers are 29th in yards per play (4.9) and 27th in scoring (17.5 points per game). Pittsburgh is also tied for the 11th-most turnovers (17) and is tied for the 11th-most sacks taken (34). The assignment will likely be even easier this week since Kenny Pickett is listed as doubtful.
Steelers are listing QB Kenny Pickett as doubtful for Sunday’s game vs. the Panthers and the team plans to announce its starting QB Saturday.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 16, 2022
Pickett hasn't taken the league by storm, but neither Mitchell Trubisky nor Mason Rudolph are NFL-caliber starters. The Panthers can tee off on either fill-in quarterback. As a result, we project Carolina's defense as the number-one D/ST and rate them as the best point-per-dollar option at the position.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.