5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 15
There isn't a better starting point for unearthing values for FanDuel NFL contests than numberFire's projections tool.
Users can easily view the entire player pool or sort by position to see statistical projections for all players. Additionally, the column for value provides a sortable way to view which players offer the most bang for your buck, showing users the player's points per thousand dollars of salary.
But, of course, factors such as a team's implied total and the game's spread are integral for decision-making. Fortunately, you can peruse the heat map for that information and a wealth of other goodies.
Nevertheless, other considerations help inform my selection. So, this is your home for finding the five FanDuel values I'm targeting weekly for their main slate. Check this week's picks below.
Mike White, QB, New York Jets ($7,000)
Mike White took some vicious hits last week and was grimacing and screaming in pain. However, he gutted out the game and is expected to start again this week.
With the #Jets preparing for Mike White to start, coach Robert Saleh announces that Zach Wilson will be the backup QB. A promotion back to the game day roster.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 14, 2022
White has played well since taking over the reins for the New York Jets. In three starts, White has completed 80 of 129 passes for 952 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions -- despite playing in poor weather in two of those contests. White also added a rushing touchdown.
Head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur are worthy of praise for opening up the offense under White's guidance. The Jets have attempted 78 passes and 49 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Week 12.
Hopefully, White is healthy enough to take advantage of a cushy matchup. According to our team power rankings, the Detroit Lions have the fifth-worst pass defense. The pace should be tasty, too. Per Football Outsiders, the Lions are 8th in situation-neutral pace, and the Jets are 15th.
If you want to save salary at quarterback and swerve off the studs, consider White.
D'Onta Foreman, RB, Carolina Panthers ($6,400)
The Carolina Panthers are using a backfield committee. Fortunately, that doesn't sound the death knell for D'Onta Foreman since Carolina deploys a run-heavy approach. In two starts by Sam Darnold (Week 12 and Week 14), they've attempted 32 passes and 48 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts. Foreman handled 22 of those attempts, and Chuba Hubbard toted the rock 19 times.
However, there was a decided split that favored Foreman when the Panthers led by at least eight points, with Foreman carrying the pigskin 23 times in the split versus 12 for Hubbard. According to the numberFire heat map, Carolina is a 2.5-point favorite. The game script should be good for Carolina, and they might lay the wood to the Pittsburgh Steelers if Kenny Pickett is forced to sit and Mitchell Trubisky or Mason Rudolph gets the nod as the starter.
Foreman has at least 21 rush attempts in three of his last four games, spiking a 130-yard, one-touchdown performance in Week 10, rumbling for 113 scoreless yards in Week 12, and rushing for 74 yards in Week 14. Unfortunately, the one rushing touchdown has left much to be desired. However, Foreman appears to be the preferred goal-line hammer. In Carolina's last four games, Foreman has four carries inside the five-yard line. Darnold has one, and Hubbard has one.
The matchup is mid-pack for Foreman. Nevertheless, I love Carolina's odds of winning and the game script being ideal for Foreman, making him a superb value pick at running back.
Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets ($5,600)
Elijah Moore is trending in the right direction. Yes, his playing time surged last week after Corey Davis left the contest with a concussion, so there is a risk to Moore's playing time in two-receiver sets if Davis is able to return this week, which appears fairly likely as of Wednesday.
Still, Moore's snap share has climbed from 34.43 percent in Week 12 to 68.87 percent in Week 13 and 82.19 percent in Week 14. Moreover, the second-year wideout had promising numbers last week. He had a team-high 18.2 percent target share on White's 44 passes in Week 14 and amassed six receptions for 60 yards in the contest. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Moore was targeted on 19.1 percent of his 47 routes and spent 30 of his passing snaps aligned in the slot.
Moore's alignment is important because the Lions have been lousy at defending the slot.
Half-PPR points per target allowed to perimeter WRs and slot WRs over the last six weeks pic.twitter.com/S8LLofpoCH
— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) December 8, 2022
The chart shows the Lions permitted 1.68 half-point PPR points per target to slots during that six-week stretch. Then, in Week 14, they were smashed by the Minnesota Vikings' wideouts who aligned in the slot. According to PFF, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, and Jalen Reagor combined for 11 receptions for 181 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 targets when aligned in the slot.
As a result, I love Moore's potential in a drool-inducing matchup, regardless of Davis's playing status for this week. The numberFire projection algorithm is onboard for using Moore on FanDuel's main slate, projecting him to tie for the seventh-highest value score -- the measure of points per $1,000 of FanDuel salary -- among all wideouts.
Greg Dulcich, TE, Denver Broncos ($5,600)
The Denver Broncos came out of nowhere last week and scored a season-high 28 points in a losing effort against the Kansas City Chiefs. Sadly, Russell Wilson was knocked out of that game early with a concussion, leaving his status for this week in question. Mark Rypien will start if Wilson doesn't clear the NFL's concussion protocol.
Obviously, despite Wilson's struggles this year, he's the best quarterback on the Broncos. Thankfully, Rypien has started two games in his NFL career and has done enough to keep some of his teammates relevant in fantasy.
Therefore, Greg Dulcich is a viable value target irrespective of Denver's starting quarterback. Rypien started against Gang Green's stacked defense in Week 7, and Dulcich was targeted 9 times (19.6 percent target share) and had 6 receptions for 51 receiving yards. Dulcich is coming off of an encouraging game in Week 14. He had a 22.2 percent target share, 3 receptions, 42 receiving yards, and 85 air yards on Wilson's pass attempts.
Dulcich has a golden opportunity this week in the dream matchup for a tight end. First, according to Football Outsiders, tight ends have averaged the most receiving yards per game (68.9) against the Arizona Cardinals. Second, per Pro Football Reference, the Cardinals have permitted the second-most targets (105), most receptions (86), and most receiving touchdowns (nine) to tight ends this year.
Dulcich is a matchup-driven suggestion who has flashed his potential a few times this year.
Denver Broncos D/ST ($3,700)
Last week was a mixed bag for the Denver D/ST. The Kansas City Chiefs' offense produced three touchdowns and two field goals (KC's defense also returned an interception for a touchdown). However, the Broncos also had two sacks and picked off Patrick Mahomes three times. The Broncos have a markedly easier assignment this week and might get a pass-rushing boost.
Randy Gregory could be back pic.twitter.com/foRCSqFrvR
— DNVR Broncos (@DNVR_Broncos) December 15, 2022
The return of Randy Gregory would enhance Denver's potential for piling up sacks. And the matchup is a good one.
Colt McCoy is starting for the Cardinals, and the veteran journeyman is a non-threatening matchup. He's taken 11 sacks, thrown only 1 touchdown, tossed 2 interceptions, and failed to reach 250 passing yards in his three starts this season.
The Broncos are 2.5-point home favorites, and Arizona has the lowest implied total (17.00 points) on the main slate. As a result, Denver's defense is projected as the second-highest-scoring D/ST this week and has the highest value score, per our model. While they'll be a chalky pick, the Denver D/ST is the correct choice in cash games and a stellar option in tournaments.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.