Monday Night Football Betting: Will Arizona Pull the Upset as a Home Underdog?

With the playoff picture coming into focus, tonight’s Monday Night matchup features two teams on the outside looking in - the New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals.

Both teams have dropped their last two games. A third loss would effectively end any chance at the playoffs for the Cardinals while it would put the Patriots a full game back for the AFC’s final playoff spot.

Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):

TeamnERDnERD RankRush Off NEP RankPass Off NEP RankRush Def NEP RankPass Def NEP Rank
New England Patriots1.3512292325
Arizona Cardinals-3.432516242320

Inside the Standard Bets

Our model is giving the edge to the Patriots on the road, expecting them to win outright 61.2% of the time. They are 2.5-point favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook, and our model also gives them the edge against the spread (ATS), putting the likelihood the Pats will cover at 56.2%.

The odds from FanDuel for a New England win are -130 (56.5% implied probability) with their odds to cover at -105 (51.2% implied).

The point spread has shifted a bit, making the Patriots a slightly heavier favorite as the week has gone on. While there is still some value in New England to cover (we rate it as a one-star bet), there is more value in the Patriots on the moneyline. We rate that as a two-star bet.

The point total is 43.5 with odds for the over at -115 (53.5% implied) and the under at -105 (51.2% implied). We currently like the over to hit -- but just barely. We have it hitting 51.3% of the time.

Team and Player Prop Value Bets

The Patriots' defense ranks 6th in total points against per game while the Cardinals are dead last. Offensively, New England has fared well on the road, scoring the fourt-most second-half road points this season.

I see the Cardinals' offense hitting a wall in the second half as Bill Belichick will make adjustments to contain Arizona’s offense. That's why I like the patriots to cover a 0.5-point second-half spread (+100 odds).

Rhamondre Stevenson has been very involved in the Patriots' passing game of late. He’s averaging 7.7 targets over his last six games. Arizona’s defense has been hurt by running backs in the passing game as they have given up the seventh-most receiving yards to the position.

Our player projection model expects 5.5 receptions and 40.8 receiving yards for Rhamondre tonight. Each of those numbers is over his prop lines of 4.5 receptions (-146) and 35.5 receiving yards (-110). Taking the over on both looks enticing, but if I’m choosing one, the heavy price for his reception total prop is a bit high (-146 odds, 59.4% implied probability), so I like Stevenson’s receiving yardage prop instead.

Final Notes

-- The over has hit in 8 of the cardinal’s 12 games this season, including 6 straight.
-- New England has covered in four of six road games this season.
-- On the spread, 63% of the money is on the Cardinals, with the Patriots getting 51% of the wagers.