FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 14 Monday Night (Patriots at Cardinals), Presented by VISA
Like the past couple of Monday night contests, this could be a lower-scoring game. The visiting New England Patriots are 1.5-point road favorites over the Arizona Cardinals in a matchup featuring a 43.5 over/under. Sounds like just the sort of game to spice up with some DFS lineups.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
The single-game daily fantasy football slate isn't all you can enjoy tonight. Be sure to join the VISA Monday Night Perfect Picks contest, a standard pick'em format about tonight's matchup. Just answer 10 questions about the upcoming on-field action, and if you're one of the fans to answer the most questions correctly, you'll earn a share of the prize pool. Join the contest now, and make your picks for a chance to win.
With Damien Harris listed as doubtful, Stevenson should have a true bell-cow role again tonight. Harris was out in Week 13, and despite a negative game script in a lopsided loss to the Bills, Stevenson would go on to play 98.0% of the snaps and log 10 carries and 8 targets.
Game script shouldn't be an issue in what should be a much closer matchup, and he shouldn't have trouble churning out yards against Arizona's 25th-ranked schedule-adjusted rush defense, per numberFire's metrics. The Cardinals also sit 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed per target to running backs, which bodes well for a running back who's seen at least six targets in each of the last six games.
Whether or not Harris has been active, Stevenson has consistently produced, recording double-digit FanDuel points in 10 straight games and exceeding 15 points in 6 of those weeks.
Mac Jones ($13,500) also cracks the top three in our projections, but he's a tougher sell as an MVP. Jones has thrown more than one or zero touchdowns once all season, and he's cracked 300 passing yards just twice in his eight full games. As a quarterback, we can't completely rule out Jones leading the slate in scoring, but he's probably better as a flex option in the majority of lineups.
New England ranks fifth in adjusted pass defense and second in adjusted rush defense, so the Cardinals' offense will have their work cut out for them. But Murray's MVP-caliber upside is obvious; he's hit 20-plus FanDuel points five times this season. He's the QB6 in FanDuel points per game this season, and that's due in large part to him averaging a robust 41.5 rushing yards per game.
Murray does figure to be popular, though, so Hopkins is another way to access this passing game for the multiplier slot. However, the return of Marquise Brown ($13,000) put a clear dent in Hopkins' role in Week 12. D-Hop actually saw a lower target share (22.2% vs. 29.6%) compared to Brown, and he only had a slight edge in air yards (36.5% vs. 35.3%). That being said, Hopkins still popped in the box score with four catches for 87 yards and a score, so we shouldn't be too worried about his ceiling. He's scored double-digit FanDuel points in all six games this year.
Since returning in Week 9, Conner has averaged an 85.4% snap rate while tallying 16.8 carries and 4.0 targets per game. He also has a 68.8% red zone rush share over the span. The Patriots have given up the second-fewest FanDuel points per game to opposing backfields, putting a significant damper on Conner's MVP prospects, but the volume keeps him in play nonetheless.
Given the role in his return, the aforementioned Marquise Brown probably deserves some MVP consideration, but if nothing else, he's a stellar flex play.
Among the remaining Arizona skill players, Greg Dortch ($7,000) and Trey McBride ($5,500) are the most relevant pieces. After being sidelined in Week 12, Dortch should resume his role as the Cardinals' slot receiver while Rondale Moore is out, and when we last saw him in Week 11, he logged a 93.0% snap rate, 95.7% route rate, and 23.8% target share.
McBride hasn't shown much on the stat sheet this season, but he's recorded a 77.8% snap rate and 67.5% route rate in two games filling in for Zach Ertz, giving him some punt value. For what it's worth, New England is 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed per target to tight ends.
While A.J. Green ($6,500) projects decently well in numberFire's model, he only saw two targets with Brown back in Week 12, and Dortch's return figures to further diminish his usage. He hasn't exceeded eight FanDuel points in any game this year. Similarly, it's hard to get excited about Robbie Anderson ($6,000), who hasn't made any noise since joining the Cardinals.
On the Patriots, top wideout Jakobi Meyers has been ruled out, which opens the door for more looks amongst their pass-catchers. The problem is figuring out who will get them. Our projections rank DeVante Parker ($7,500) first, followed by Hunter Henry ($7,500), Nelson Agholor ($8,000), Tyquan Thornton ($6,500), Jonnu Smith ($6,000), and Kendrick Bourne ($5,500).
When Meyers only played 29.1% of the snaps in Week 12 due to injury, Parker and Agholor led the wide receivers in snaps, suggesting that they should be the main beneficiaries of Meyers' absence tonight. Both players have hit double-digit FanDuel points twice this season.
Henry could have the best chance of producing against a defense that's allowed the most FanDuel points per game to tight ends. He leads the team in red zone targets, and the absence of Meyers and Damien Harris could further funnel looks his way near the goal line.
Of Thornton, Smith, and Bourne, it's Bourne who's most likely to see a bump in snaps with Meyers out, but none of the three reached a 40% snap rate last week. Bourne reached a 69.1% snap rate and 66.7% route rate in Week 12, though, possibly putting him on the radar at his near-minimum salary.
If this turns into a low-scoring game, both the defenses and kickers could have an impact. The Patriots' offense has a knack for stalling in opposing territory, which has led to Nick Folk ($9,000) hitting four-to-five field goals on four different occasions, leading to 15 or more FanDuel points in those weeks. Matt Prater ($8,000) has hit double-digit points just once this year, but his salary does come at a $1,000 discount compared to Folk.
Between the defenses, the New England D/ST ($9,500) is enticing against Kyler Murray and an offensive line that's struggling with injuries. The Patriots are among the league's best at generating pressure, and even with one fewer game played, they're still tied for fourth in sacks entering tonight. While Murray can often evade pressure with his legs, he's been sacked four or more times in three of the last five games, and he has seven interceptions and eight fumbles this year.