Thursday Night Football Betting: Should You Bet on the Packers to Beat the Titans?
Week 11 opens up with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Tennessee Titans. Both sides are coming off a win last week, with Tennessee topping the Denver Broncos while the Packers knocked off the Dallas Cowboys.
What should you expect from tonight's game, and which bets need to be on your radar?
Breaking Down the Matchup
Despite the gap in records -- 4-6 for Green Bay and 6-3 for the Titans -- our nERD metric has this as a very even matchup. The Packers sit 14th with a nERD of 0.19, which means we'd expect them to beat an average team by 0.19 points on a neutral field. Meanwhile, the Titans are one spot behind Green Bay, sporting a nERD of -0.27.
For Green Bay, there have been plenty of headlines about how bad Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense have been, but our schedule-adjusted metrics rank the Pack's offense 16th. While that's underwhelming compared to preseason expectations, the sky is not falling, and the Green Bay offense just had one of its best showings of 2022 in last week's 31-28 overtime win over Dallas.
Aaron Jones is having another stellar season. He checks in third in Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry (0.19) among backs with at least 100 attempts this season. He's been a vital piece for Green Bay as the passing game tries to get on track.
On the other side of the ball, the Packers' defense also ranks 16th. Against the run, though, the Packers are seventh-worst, and that run D will be tested tonight by Derrick Henry. Green Bay does rank 10th against the pass.
Tennessee has been led by its defense. The Titans sit ninth in overall D, per our numbers. They're 8th against the run and 12th versus the pass, so they've been a quality unit all the way around.
Offensively, though, it's been a struggle. Our metrics have Tennessee's offense rated 10th-worst, and they're the 11th-worst rushing offense. They've been surprisingly efficient through the air, with Ryan Tannehill ranking eighth in Passing NEP per drop back with a mark of 0.17.
The Packers are 3.5-point home favorites, and the game has a 41.5-point total. Green Bay opened as a 2.5-point favorite, so the line has moved a full point in their favor.
Our model doesn't agree. We project Tennessee to win by a score of 22.18-20.14, and we give the Titans win odds of 57.0%. As such, we're really into a Tennessee moneyline bet. We rate taking Tennessee to win, which is priced at +150, as a three-star play (three-unit recommendation). As for the spread, our numbers have the Titans covering 61.2% of the time, and it's a two-star wager.
We don't have much of a lean on the total. Our game projection has 42.32 total points being scored, but we give the over just a 51.8% chance to win out.
Lazard is a lock to see a ton of snaps. He's logged snap rates of 88% and 98% in the last two weeks. He's not just running wind sprints, either. Prior to a quiet four-target game last time out, Lazard had been targeted at least seven times in five straight games and had gone for at least 55 yards in four of those five contests.
Our model has him racking up 63.6 receiving yards, and Lazard's receiving yardage prop line is at 45.5, with a -110 price on each side. I'll be on the over, and given our projection, I think it makes sense to check out his alternate receiving yardage lines of 50-plus (+106) and 60-plus yards (+174).
As we dug into at the start, the Packers' defense struggles against the run, ranking seventh-worst by our numbers. They should see a heavy dose of Derrick Henry, and our model thinks Henry eats.
We have Henry going for 116.0 rushing yards on 23.9 carries. His rushing yardage prop is at 100.5, with -110 on both sides. My biggest worry with this one is game script as Tennessee getting into a hole would likely lead to less Henry, but as long as the game is competitive -- remember: we project the Titans to win -- Henry should get fed. Sign me up for the over.
I'm also into the over on Henry's rushing attempts at a line of 21.5 (-130 on the over) as that correlates well with both a Titans win and the over on Henry's rushing yards.
-- Mike Vrabel is 20-7 against the spread when Tennessee is an underdog of at least 3.0 points.
-- The Titans are 4-0 against the spread in their last four road games.
-- Green Bay is 6-1-1 against the spread in their past eight Thursday games.