FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 11 Thursday Night (Titans at Packers)
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the host Packers are 3.0-point favorites in a game with a 41.0-point total. That makes the implied score 22.0-19.0 in favor of Green Bay.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
Going by our projections, there's a two-man tier at the top that consists of Derrick Henry ($17,000 on FanDuel) and Aaron Rodgers ($15,000). We have Henry projected for a slate-best 18.9 FanDuel points while Rodgers is forecasted to score 17.1. No one else on the slate is projected for more than 13.0 FanDuel points.
Let's start with Rodgers. He is coming off one of his best showings of the season in last week's win over the Dallas Cowboys, a game in which he totaled a season-high 19.36 FanDuel points. On the negative, 19.36 FanDuel points being his high-water mark says a lot, and Rodgers needed three passing scores to get there, as he tossed for just 224 yards. He's yet to have a 300-yard passing game this year.
On the flip side, Tennessee's defense has surrendered 20.2 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, the fourth-most, so the matchup is there. Rodgers has also been much better at home in 2022 than he has been on the road, posting 8.33 adjusted yards per attempt at Lambeau compared to 5.69 away from home. Rodgers is a solid MVP choice, and his lack of upside isn't as big of a deal in a game with a lowly 41.0-point total.
As for Henry, he paces our model's projections, and Green Bay's run defense is nothing to fear. They've permitted the 12th-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (21.1). Henry has seen at least 17 carries in every game since Week 2. The betting numbers check out, too. Henry's anytime touchdown odds are -150, per FanDuel Sportsbook, and his rushing yards prop is set way up at 100.5 yards (with a -114 price on each side).
However, there are reasons to fade Henry -- both at MVP and maybe even altogether. His $17,000 salary is restrictive ($2,000 more than anyone else), and he played only 59% and 58% of the snaps in the last two games. If Tennessee gets into a hole and has to go to a pass-heavy attack, Henry's role could shrink in the second half. After seeing increased targets earlier this year, Henry has been targeted just four times across the last three games, reverting back to the kind of role he'd had in previous seasons.
If you're building for the game to be close throughout or for a Titans win, though, Henry is a superb MVP pick.
After those two, Aaron Jones ($14,500) stands out. Jones has mostly operated as a clear number-one back this season. In his past three full games, he's played 70%, 67% and 74% of the snaps and handled 26, 24 and 17 total touches. Green Bay rode Jones in their Week 10 win, giving him 24 carries and 2 targets, which he turned into 156 total yards (138 rushing) and a touchdown. We project Jones for only 12.5 FanDuel points, but I think there's room for more. He's my favorite MVP play.
Whenever any quarterback is going to go overlooked at MVP, I'm at least a little intrigued. That's the case with Ryan Tannehill ($14,000), who practiced in full Tuesday and appears to be over his injury. It's a rough matchup considering the Packers have permitted just 13.7 FanDuel points per game to signal-callers, the fifth-fewest. Tanny fits best as a game-theory play, and if you're fading Henry, Tannehill makes a lot of sense, as you need the Titans' touchdowns to come via the passing game.
Coming off a monster game, Christian Watson ($10,500) should be pretty popular. Obviously, we can't bank on another three-tud outburst, but there is a lot to like about Watson. He's a size-speed beast who should be on the field a lot -- 84% snap rate last week -- for a Green Bay team that is lacking playmakers out wide. Watson's outlook does get dinged a bit if Randall Cobb ($7,500) returns from injury, so that's something to keep an eye on.
I like Allen Lazard ($11,000) as a pivot off Watson, especially if it looks like Watson will be chalky. Lazard has played at least 88% of the snaps in each of his last six fully healthy games. Prior to a quiet four-target game in Week 10, Lazard had racked up at least six looks in six consecutive outings, including 26 targets over his previous three games.
If the aforementioned Cobb does play, he's a solid value target. In his last full game, he was targeted 13 times, catching 7 passes for 99 yards.
A.J. Dillon ($12,000) is hard to get excited about at his salary. With that said, I doubt he's in many lineups, and he's totaled at least 10 touches in four of his last five games. He'd need some touchdown luck to really pop, but he's a decent +135 to reach paydirt.
On the Tennessee side, it's slim pickings at the skill positions outside of Henry.
At receiver, Treylon Burks ($8,000) and Robert Woods ($8,500) come at modest salaries, but after a 119-yard, two-score day a week ago, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($10,000) got a salary hike. It makes Westbrook-Ikhine a brutal point-per-dollar option, according to our projections.
Of that trio, Burks is the one I'm most into. He came back from injury in Week 10 and played 56% of the snaps while seeing six targets. The salary is easy to like, too.
If you're building for a Packers runaway win and are fading Henry, Dontrell Hilliard ($7,000) correlates well with that line of thinking. Hilliard has played at least 28% of the snaps in six straight games. We have to go way back to Week 1 to find the last time both he and Tannehill played in a Titans loss. In that one, Hilliard amassed 61 receiving yards and two receiving tuddies on four targets. While we can't expect him to find the end zone -- he's +550 to score -- Hilliard will be involved in the passing game if Tennessee is forced into catch-up mode.
Mason Crosby ($8,500) projects as the better option between the two kickers, and he's the lower-salaried one. We peg Crosby for 8.4 FanDuel points and rate him as the best point-per-dollar play among those salaried under $11,000.
It's a similar story with the defenses. The Green Bay D/ST ($9,000) is lower in salary than the Tennessee D/ST ($9,000), but our model has the Packers' D/ST as the much better play. We project them for 7.1 FanDuel points, compared to 5.6 for the Tennessee D/ST.