3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 10
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Cordarrelle Patterson Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Tonight's over/under is sitting at 41.5, and we see the road Falcons favored by a slight 2.5 points. The big news for this game is that the weather is looking ugly with sustained winds from 15-25 mph and gusts to 35 mph. There also should be rain throughout the game -- but in varying amounts.
The weather generally impacts the passing game thus, we want to take a look at the rushing game for some props. This leads us to Cordarrelle Patterson and over 54.5 rushing yards tonight. Patterson returned last week and posted 44 rushing yards on 13 attempts with a pair of touchdowns.
While the touchdowns are nice to see, the usage is more important. Patterson played on only 38.3% of the snaps last week, which is far lower than the 53.4% snap rate he played on in Weeks 1-4 prior to getting hurt. His snap rate should continue to increase, putting him in a good spot to see plenty of carries.
The Falcons enter with a 57.71% rush play percentage, which is the second-highest in the league, showing they are clearly committed to the run game. On top of this, the matchup against the Panthers' defense is an amazing one since they have allowed the third-most (1.036) rushing yards to running backs this season.
All of this has Patterson projected for 81.91 rushing yards, clearly hitting the over on his prop tonight.
Kyle Pitts Under 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
With a run-heavy offense, we can look to the under 37.5 receiving yards for Kyle Pitts tonight.
As mentioned, the Falcons are running the ball at the second-highest rate in the league, which means they are passing it at the second-lowest rate (42.29%). They don't pass it frequently, and they don't pass it at a high volume, and that can leave the pass-catchers with a lack of production.
That lack of production is what we've seen from Kyle Pitts for the majority of this season. He hit the under on this prop in six of his eight games.
Next, we look at the Panthers' defense, which has, surprisingly, been solid against tight ends. They aren't a strong defense overall but have only allowed 416 receiving yards to opposing tight ends (17th in the league).
Sprinkle on top the weather impact for tonight's game, and there's nothing pointing to Pitts racking up a ton of receiving yards. This has me going with the under.
P.J. Walker Under 165.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Finally, we'll look at an under 165.5 passing yards for P.J. Walker.
The Panthers' offense is nothing to write home about, and they often don't inspire a ton of confidence. Walker is set to start his fifth-straight game for the Panthers, but one of the main questions is will he finish it? Walker was under center last week against the Cincinnati Bengals and could only muster nine passing yards in the entire first half.
This caused the Panthers to start Baker Mayfield in the second half, where he went on to post 155 passing yards and 2 touchdowns. This is the first factor we need to look at tonight -- Walker isn't that good. If there are any struggles or inefficiency with the Panthers' offense, will it be a shock to see Mayfield take over again?
That sounds pretty reasonable considering we saw it happen just four days ago. I haven't even mentioned the weather concerns, which could present difficulty passing the ball -- especially deep passing attempts. Even if there was no concern about Mayfield taking over the quarterback role, Walker still isn't in a great spot for a big passing performance.
Give me under 165.5 passing yards for P.J. Walker tonight.