FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10 Thursday Night (Falcons at Panthers)
The Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers battle on Thursday in an NFC South clash. These two played a 37-34 overtime thriller in Week 8. Oddsmakers aren't expecting another shootout this time around.
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the visiting Falcons are 3.0-point favorites in a game with a 43.5-point total. That makes the implied score 23.25-20.25 in favor of Atlanta. Rain and wind could be an issue, so that's something to watch for as we get closer to kickoff.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
Despite consistently seeing poor pass-game volume, Mariota has been a solid fantasy asset this year. He's averaging 15.9 FanDuel points per game and has run for at least 20 yards in five straight. He put up 24.2 FanDuel points against Carolina two weeks ago, and we project him for 15.3 in this one.
Even before factoring in the $2,000 salary difference between Mariota and Walker, I'm a little more interested in Walker. The Falcons' D has given up the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to signal-callers (20.8), so the matchup is a good one. In the previous game against Atlanta, Walker threw for 317 yards and ran for another 20, but his FanDuel output of 17.7 points was muted by him accounting for only one touchdown. We have him scoring 14.7 FanDuel points on Thursday.
Cordarrelle Patterson ($14,000) returned with a bang in Week 9, scoring two tuddies on 13 carries and 45 yards. He added one catch for nine yards. Carolina has been shredded by running backs this year, surrendering the third-most FanDuel points per game to the position (25.7). Our model loves Patterson, forecasting him for a slate-leading 15.6 FanDuel points, and if weather is an issue, we could see both teams lean on the running games.
However, I'm not quite as into him. While he did well last week in his first game back, Patterson played just 38% of the snaps. Could that number go up in his second game off the shelf? Absolutely. But with it being a short week, I think there's also a chance he sees another low snap rate before being unleashed in Week 11. I'll mostly be off C-Patt as my multiplier unless it looks like he'll be completely overlooked as an MVP option.
Sticking with Atlanta, I'm super into Kyle Pitts ($8,500), and I'm so ready to be hurt again. The salary is lovely, and Atlanta is clearly trying to get Pitts involved. Over the past three weeks, Pitts has amassed a 34% target share and 38% air yards share. It's resulted in just 10 catches for 116 total yards and a score in that three-game run, but if the targets keep coming, a spike game is inevitable. It could've happened a week ago if Mariota didn't miss Pitts on a few long throws. I will be overweight on Pitts overall, and he's my favorite MVP option.
Foreman's outlook is tied to the status of Chuba Hubbard ($10,000), who is questionable but seems to be trending toward suiting up after practicing in full. If Hubbard plays, he should chip away at Foreman's workload, but if Hubbard sits, Foreman could go nuts in a workhorse role. Foreman nuked Atlanta for 26 carries, 118 rushing yards and three tuds in the first meeting. He had 118 rushing yards in the game before that, too. You can make a case for Foreman as the top MVP play if Hubbard is out.
Moore is a bet-on-talent pick who is stuck in a lousy offense. He's seen at least six looks in every game this season and totaled 13 grabs for 221 yards and a pair of scores across Weeks 7 and 8 before going down with the ship against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10. Atlanta has permitted the second-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts (37.4) and has had a particularly tough time on the back end of late due to injuries. We project Moore to score 12.7 FanDuel points.
In my eyes, this slate sets up well for stars-and-scrubs builds, especially with Pitts way down in salary.
Among the remaining players, it's actually Eddy Pineiro ($9,000) with the highest projection (8.2 FanDuel points), according to our numbers, which says a lot about the lack of depth on this slate. Pineiro has scored at least nine FanDuel points in two of his last five games, but he also has two three-point games in that span. He'd likely need this to be a pretty low-scoring slate to get into the optimal, something that isn't farfetched, but the weather could be a problem for him.
Atlanta rookie Drake London ($10,500) is over-salaried for his blah role in a run-first offense, and he could see a lot of stud corner Jaycee Horn. I'll mostly be off London, but that'll probably be true for the masses, making him an interesting game-theory play. It's just hard to see much upside for a receiver who has garnered only 17 looks over the past four weeks and has a tough cornerback matchup.
Tyler Allgeier ($10,000) is a fun pivot off Patterson. Allgeier played the exact same number of snaps as Patterson last week and turned 10 carries into 99 yards while tacking on one reception for 24 yards. He was excellent, but Patterson got the touchdowns. If you think Patterson's snap rate stays low for another week, using Allgeier makes a lot of sense, and he figures to get a lot less love than Patterson does in terms of draft percentage.
We project Terrace Marshall Jr. ($9,000) for just 5.3 FanDuel points, but I like him more than our algorithm does. Marshall has seen a big boost in his role since Robbie Anderson was traded. He's played at least 86% of the snaps in three consecutive outings and has a combined seven for 140 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks. With Carolina a home 'dog, that helps Marshall's outlook.
While neither D/ST projects well, both of these quarterbacks have a mistake in them, and if it pours, we could get some rain-related turnovers. We project the Carolina D/ST ($9,500) for 6.0 FanDuel points and the Atlanta D/ST ($10,000) for 7.2.