Week 9 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Each and every week throughout the NFL season, the experts at numberFire will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of their picks to provide context for their reasoning.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.

Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.

Brandon Gdula, Senior Managing Editor

Side: Minnesota Vikings -3.0 (-115)

Total: Minnesota Vikings at Washington Commanders Over 43.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Travis Etienne Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

In two games since Etienne took over the Jaguars' backfield, he has averaged 19.0 carries and 135.0 yards per game. His rushing success rate is 55.3%, and he's putting up 2.99 rushing yards over expectation per carry. The Las Vegas Raiders allow a league-worst 1.89 yards over expected per carry. There should be a few explosive rushes here, and even though the Jaguars are underdogs, it's tight -- and they're at home.

Jim Sannes, Senior Writer and Analyst

Side: Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 (110)

I'd prefer the Jags' moneyline at +106, but regardless, I want in on them here. Both my traditional betting model and my 2022-only model say the Jags should be favored. They're a decently efficient team on early downs both offensively and defensively, and the Raiders' offense has relied a bit too much on late-down heroics to move the ball. We saw the downsides of that last week. This number seems like an overreaction to the negative plays Trevor Lawrence has made, and while those matter, they shouldn't overshadow the broad body of work being solid.

Total: Las Vegas Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars Over 47.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Justin Herbert Under 289.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Austan Kas, Editor

Side: New England Patriots -5.5 (-110)

Our nERD metric has the Colts as the much worse side, giving Indy a -6.52 nERD rating, compared to New England's -1.93 clip. Having to face Bill Belichick's defense -- the league's sixth-best D by our metrics -- in his first-ever road start, Sam Ehlinger figures to have a rough day, and the Patriots' offense should be able to do enough against the Indianapolis Colts' defense, one we rate as the 11th-worst, for New England to cover. Our projections have the Pats covering as 5.5-point favorites 60.0% of the time.

Total: Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons Under 49.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Zay Jones Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Kenyatta Storin, Editor

Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.0 (-104)

Total: Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 42.5 (-110)

Both of these teams sit in the bottom third of numberFire's scheduled-adjusted offensive rankings, and that's resulted in both teams averaging below 20 points per game. Both teams rate much better defensively, with the Bucs boasting a top-five adjusted defense while the Rams are roughly league-average. Neither team has played inspiring football lately, and everything points to a low-scoring contest.

Player Prop: Josh Jacobs Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Tom Vecchio, Editor

Side: Minnesota Vikings -3.0 (-115)

Total: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots Under 40.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Robert Tonyan Over 30.5 Receiving Yards

Tonyan has a 15.5% target share, 10.3% air yards share, and 14.7% red zone target share, which should bode well for him against the Detroit Lions. Detroit is allowing the 10th-most (413) receiving yards to tight ends this season. Tonyan is becoming one of the more consistent options in the Packers' passing game due to the injuries, inconsistency, or overall lack of trust from Aaron Rodgers for the other pass-catchers.

Austin Swaim, Editor

Side: Arizona Cardinals -1.5 (-115)

Total: Las Vegas Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars Over 47.5 (-110)

Player Prop: A.J. Dillon Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Lions are numberFire's worst rush defense, so there should be plenty of openings for the Green Bay rushing attack in this one. I love this low mark for Dillon. The Packers' winless stretch has muted his role since they've not been ahead with leads late -- like they were in the first four games of the season, when Dillon played more than half the snaps in each game. With the Pack a 3.5-point favorite, Dillon's role should be great if they lead, and he hit this mark in a negative script last week with 54 yards on just a 42.6% snap rate. We've got Dillon projected for 49.6 yards in this one -- well clear of this line.