3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 7
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Chris Godwin Any Time Touchdown (+155)
With the fourth-highest (26.25) implied team total, the Buccaneers are expected to put some points on the board, and we want to capture that via player props. This week, we turn to Chris Godwin, who is playing a very strong offensive role for the Buccaneers but hasn't found the end zone this season.
Godwin started off the year coming back from an injury and then got hurt in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys. It's been a bit up and down for him, but when he's on the field, he's an elite receiver with plenty of offensive potential.
Through four games this season, Godwin is playing on 62.5% of the snaps and is running a route on 67.6% of drop backs. He's logged a team-high 18.7% target share, 18.4% air yards share, and 16.0% red zone target share. The snaps and routes seem low, but the Bucs limited him in his first few weeks due to the injuries.
If we look at last week versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, Godwin played on 89.7% of the snaps and ran a route on 90.5% of drop backs. That is the level we should expect him to be playing on a weekly basis.
Getting him involved in the offense has been a clear goal for the Buccaneers, and prior to last week's game, we even saw Tom Brady sporting a Godwin shirt while he hyped up his pass-catcher. Last week Godwin posted his best game of the season with 12 targets, 6 receptions, and 95 yards but wasn't able to find the end zone.
When it comes to the Panthers' defense, they have allowed the 11th most (983) receiving yards to wide receivers this season, along with 4 touchdowns through six weeks. This shouldn't be a shock -- the Panthers have the seventh-worst pass defense by our metrics.
Getting the ball to Godwin is a good plan since he comes in with a 90.91% receiving success rate, which is the 11th highest among wide receivers with at least 30 targets.
Godwin is playing a very strong offensive role for the Buccaneers, has a great matchup this week, and is ready to walk his way into the end zone for the first time this season.
Kyle Pitts Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Trusting Kyle Pitts? Not for the faint of heart!
If you've been following the NFL or playing in any fantasy leagues this season, Pitts has been one of the notable disappointments. A lack of volume and a lack of consistency has led to overall frustration for all involved. If you have been burned by Pitts to this point in the season, I get it, but this is objectively a good spot.
He's going up against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have allowed the fourth-most (390) receiving yards to tight ends this season. Opposing tight ends have gone for 70 yards or more in three of their six games this season, making this a clear matchup to attack.
The Atlanta Falcons come into this game as 6.5-point underdogs, meaning they should be trailing and in a spot for a positive passing game script.
Pitts still has a solid role with a 23.1% target share, 31.3% air yards share, and 13.6 average depth of target (aDOT). He's the clear number-two option behind Drake London and should be getting involved more frequently going forward. Falcons' quarterback Marcus Mariota was quoted as saying, "It's on me to give (Pitts) more opportunities."
Call it a narrative, call it the squeaky wheel, but Mariota knows he has to get the ball to Pitts more often. Finally, our projections have Pitts going for 51.5 receiving yards, hitting the over on his prop this week.
Brian Robinson Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
With Carson Wentz out for several weeks, the Commanders will have Taylor Heinicke as their new starting quarterback. We've seen Heinicke in the league for a few years, and he doesn't really move the needle when it comes to the passing game, so we want to see them turn to the rushing game.
Right from the jump, it's a great matchup against the Green Bay Packers, who have allowed the second-most (719) rushing yards to running backs. Green Bay's defense has struggled throughout the season, and this is another week where the rushing game for their opposition will shine.
Robinson made his season debut two weeks ago and played on only 27.6% of the snaps, amassing 9 carries and 22 yards. It wasn't really noteworthy, but that all changed last week against the Chicago Bears. Robinson played on 47.2% of snaps and accounted for 60% of the teams rushing attempts, which resulted in 17 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown.
With a clear role in the Washington offense, Robinson should be in line for another strong game against a weak run D. Our projections have Robinson going for 66.95 rushing yards on 15.12 attempts.