Week 7 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions
Each and every week throughout the NFL season, the experts at numberFire will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of their picks to provide context for their reasoning.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Brandon Gdula, Senior Managing Editor
Side: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-110)
The line has shifted toward Kansas City but not so much that a field-goal victory will hurt us here. The Chiefs are the top offense in the NFL in my expected points per play model after opponent adjustments, and the same measure suggests that the 49ers' defense is a bit overrated. They're still good -- third-best -- but have had the best scoring luck of any defensive unit, as well.
Player Prop: Brian Robinson Over 13.5 Carries (-114)
Jim Sannes, Senior Writer and Analyst
Side: Denver Broncos -1 (-114)
Player Prop: Tee Higgins Any Time Touchdown (+135)
Higgins leads the Bengals in both overall target share and deep target share in his four full games, and he's tied with Ja'Marr Chase in red-zone target share. The Atlanta Falcons' secondary is dealing with injuries, so I'm expecting this to be a big spot for the Cincinnati Bengals. Higgins' touchdown props relative to those of Chase are too long.
Austan Kas, Editor
Side: New England Patriots -7.5 (-115)
Dallas' offense gets Dak Prescott back and should feast on a poor Detroit defense, but I think the Lions' offense is going to struggle. The Lions allowed a whopping 16 pressures last time out in a shutout loss at the New England Patriots, and their offensive line will have its hands full against the Cowboys' pass rush. Our model projects the under to win out 61.7% of the time.
Player Prop: Tee Higgins Over 5.5 Receptions (-102)
Kenyatta Storin, Editor
Side: Detroit Lions +7.0 (-110)
Dak Prescott couldn't ask for a better game to return to against a Lions defense that ranks 32nd in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. And yet, I'm skeptical that this offense will suddenly turn into a juggernaut in his first game back, and we shouldn't underestimate a Detroit offense that was turning heads prior to its dud versus the Patriots. The Lions have had extra time to prepare coming off a bye, and a healthy Amon-Ra St. Brown and possibly D'Andre Swift could help them keep things competitive.
Player Prop: Saquon Barkley Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Tom Vecchio, Editor
Side: New York Giants +3.0 (-105)
Player Prop: Chris Godwin Any Time Touchdown (+155)
Through four games this season, Godwin is playing on 62.5% of the snaps and is running a route on 67.6% of drop backs. He owns a team-high 18.7% target share, 18.4% air yards share, and 16.0% red zone target share. The snaps and routes seem low, but the Bucs limited him in his first few weeks due to the injuries. If we look at last week versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, Godwin played on 89.7% of the snaps and ran a route on 90.5% of drop backs. When it comes to the Carolina Panthers' defense, they have allowed the 11th-most (983) receiving yards to receivers this season, along with four touchdowns through six weeks.
Austin Swaim, Editor
Side: Washington Commanders +4.5 (-105)
Player Prop: Evan Engram Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Beyond the revenge spot, Engram has one of the better roles for a tight end. He ran 84.6% of the routes and saw a 27.3% target share last week as -- apparently -- the second option for Trevor Lawrence. The New York Giants might be a sneaky spot to target tight ends. They had an unimposing tight-end schedule before last week, and then they ceded 11 targets and 106 yards to Mark Andrews. I would not be surprised to see Engram get plenty of work with this fairly low mark to clear.