5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 6
There isn't a better starting point for unearthing values for FanDuel NFL contests than numberFire's projection tool. Users can easily view the entire player pool or sort by position to see statistical projections for all players in FanDuel's player pool. Additionally, the column for value provides a sortable way to view which players offer the most bang for your buck, showing users the player's point-per thousand dollars of salary.
But, of course, factors such as a team's implied total and game's spread are integral for decision-making. Fortunately, numberFire patrons can peruse the Heat Map for that information and a wealth of other goodies.
Nevertheless, other considerations help inform my selection. So, this is your home for finding the five FanDuel values I'm targeting weekly for their main slate. Check this week's picks below.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets ($7,100)
Further, he's balled out. Since Zach Wilson returned in Week 4, Hall has carried the ball 35 times for 163 yards and two touchdowns. He's also had four receptions on eight targets for 112 yards. In addition, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), he's run 37 routes versus just 22 for Michael Carter.
Thus, Hall is emerging as a feature back. The rookie has also earned an increased workload. First, Hall has the seventh-highest Rushing Net Expected Points (0.18 NEP) per carry out of 54 running backs with at least 20 carries in 2022. He's also 14th out of 52 runnings backs with at least eight targets this season in Reception NEP per Target (0.44).
Hall also hasn't been just a swing-pass back. On the contrary, he's been used downfield.
Breece Hall's average depth of target (5.9, via @PFF) is nearly two times higher than the next-closest running back (excluding FBs like Reggie Gilliam and Kyle Juszczyk).
The last time an RB had an aDOT higher than 5.9 after five weeks was 2017.
— Jack Miller (@JackMiller02) October 10, 2022
So, Hall is a game-script-proof and matchup-proof back with a cathedral-high ceiling. As a result, he's an exciting value pick.
Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($6,500)
Sadly, Rashaad Penny is out for the rest of the year. So, now, Kenneth Walker III is the next man up. From now on, the second-round pick should headline the backfield for the Seattle Seahawks and has teased his potential already.
Walker is 16th among running backs with at least 20 carries this year in Rushing NEP per carry (0.09). He's also demonstrated elite tackle-breaking ability. According to PFF, Walker has 10 missed-tackles-forced on only 23 carries this year. Thankfully, Walker's ability to avoid tacklers isn't a small-sample fluke. Instead, according to PFF, he had the most missed-tackles-forced (88) among FBS running backs in 2021.
Walker's usage has also been encouraging. Since Week 4, he's had 16 rush attempts for 117 yards and a touchdown versus one attempt for four scoreless yards by DeeJay Dallas. However, Walker has also outpaced Dallas in routes, running 21 versus only 11. Yes, Walker still has a lot to prove in the passing game after being a non-factor in that capacity in college. Still, it's been encouraging that he's been targeted 7 times on 30 routes -- an eye-catching 23.3 percent target per route run rate as a rookie.
Finally, the numberFire projection model loves him, projecting him for the third-highest value score -- FanDuel points per $1,000 salary -- on this week's FanDuel main slate. Therefore, Walker is one of the best value picks.
Gabriel Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills ($6,900)
Gabriel Davis went off for three receptions, 171 yards, and two touchdowns last week. This week, he faces a foe he had even more jaw-dropping numbers against the last time he faced them.
In the AFC Divisional Round game against the Kansas City Chiefs last season, he blew up for 8 receptions, 201 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns on 10 targets.
Davis missed Week 2 with an ankle injury and was a limited practice participant in Week 3 and Week 4. Then, Davis logged full practice participation all week before Week 5. So, he's played two games this year following an entire week of full practice participation, and Davis has been a monster in those games, securing 7 receptions for 259 yards and 3 touchdowns on 11 targets and 246 Air Yards. Further, even with his down weeks, Davis is first out of 72 receivers targeted at least 20 times this year with 1.4 Reception NEP per Target.
Fortunately, Davis is tailor-made for continued success this week. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Davis's 16.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT) is the sixth-deepest among players targeted at least 15 times this season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have been torched on deep passes since Week 2. In the previous four weeks, they've allowed 11 completions on 23 pass attempts of at least 15 air yards for 321 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
Finally, Davis is attached to a desirable situation. According to the Heat Map, the Buffalo Bills have the highest implied total (28.00 points) on the main slate. Further, the game's spread is only 2.5 points, providing optimism for a back-and-forth shootout where the Bills have to keep their foot pinned to the floor on the accelerator.
Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts ($5,900)
Alec Pierce has stepped up since returning in Week 3 from a concussion suffered in Week 1. According to PFF, Pierce has had 20 targets, 15 receptions, 225 receiving yards, 3.08 yards per route run (Y/RR), and an 11.8-yard aDOT since Week 3. The athletically-gifted rookie wideout has also commanded a target on a stellar 27.4 percent of his routes in the previous three weeks.
In addition, Pierce is 15th among receivers targeted at least 20 times this season in Reception NEP per Target with 0.87. So, he's been efficient even when including a bagel in Week 1. Last week, Pierce set new highs for targets (nine), receptions (eight), and receiving yards (81). Thankfully, he has an excellent matchup for staying hot.
According to Football Outsiders, the Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game (60.7) to No. 2 wideouts. That's essentially 10 more yards than the league average (50.5). Moreover, Jacksonville's allowed the fewest receiving yards per game (36.3) to No. 1 wide receivers.
So, the Indianapolis Colts might need to lean more heavily on Pierce.
Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals ($6,000)
According to PFF, Ertz is third on the Cardinals in routes (73) and second in targets (16), receptions (12), receiving yards (95), and touchdowns (1) in the last two games.
Sure, his numbers have been more good than great. However, Ertz might kick them up a notch in a mouthwatering matchup. First, per our team power rankings, the Seattle Seahawks are the worst pass defense. Second, Seattle has been flamed by tight ends. The Seahawks have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game (79.6) to the position, much higher than the league average (48.9) in 2022. It's even more encouraging when looking at their game log and seeing they haven't faced a murderer's row of tight ends.
As a result, Ertz shines in our projection algorithm. We project him as the TE5 on the main slate, tying for the fourth-highest value score at the position. Finally, the Cardinals have the second-highest implied total (27.00), and the game's spread is only 2.5 points. So, a shootout might be on the horizon for the Cardinals and Seahawks, elevating the ceiling for the game's participants.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.