Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Week 6
Change is afoot in the NFL as we head into Week 6. The Carolina Panthers became the first team to fire their head coach, sending Matt Rhule packing after a 1-4 start to his third season at the helm. Every team has at least one victory through five weeks, just the third time since 1970 that has happened. And now bye weeks begin, changing the calculus for fantasy managers everywhere.
Another thing that is constantly changing is the odds for each team to win the Super Bowl. Week 5 certainly impacted every team's chances of ultimate glory this season. Thanks to the good folks over at FanDuel Sportsbook, we can see below what the current odds are, and we can compare that to what our model says.
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability | nF Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +400 | 20.0% | 23.2% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +650 | 13.3% | 13.8% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +650 | 13.3% | 14.9% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +950 | 9.5% | 10.0% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +1300 | 7.1% | 5.2% |
| Green Bay Packers | +1400 | 6.7% | 4.4% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1400 | 6.7% | 4.7% |
| Minnesota Vikings | +2000 | 4.8% | 3.2% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +2000 | 4.8% | 2.8% |
| Dallas Cowboys | +2000 | 4.8% | 3.4% |
| Los Angeles Rams | +2300 | 4.2% | 2.3% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +2900 | 3.3% | 2.7% |
| Miami Dolphins | +3400 | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| Indianapolis Colts | +4100 | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| New Orleans Saints | +5000 | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Denver Broncos | +5500 | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Tennessee Titans | +5500 | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Cleveland Browns | +6000 | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +6500 | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| New England Patriots | +6500 | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +7000 | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| New York Giants | +8500 | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Arizona Cardinals | +9000 | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| New York Jets | +15000 | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Detroit Lions | +18000 | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +28000 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Atlanta Falcons | +28000 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Washington Commanders | +34000 | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Houston Texans | +42000 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Chicago Bears | +50000 | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +50000 | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Carolina Panthers | +55000 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
The Buffalo Bills are still the favorites after they disemboweled the hapless Pittsburgh Steelers. The only remaining unbeaten side, the 5-0 Philadelphia Eagles, is tied for second with the Kansas City Chiefs at a +650 number. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only other side with better than a 10% chance of winning the Super Bowl, according to numberFire's metrics, and they are currently on offer at the bookies at +950 (9.5% implied odds).
The New Orleans Saints saw their odds of winning their second Vince Lombardi jump to +5000 this week, after falling to +7500 a week ago. The 4-1 New York Giants, fresh off a comeback win over the Green Bay Packers in London, now see their odds at +8500. The previously surging Jacksonville Jaguars lost their second game in a row on Sunday and saw their Super Bowl odds fall to +6500. They now have the third-best odds of making the playoffs of the four AFC South teams.
After losing to the San Francisco 49ers cost Matt Rhule his job, the Panthers have fallen all the way to the bottom of the betting odds. They are available at +55000 this week after sitting at +21000 a week ago. This was by far the most significant change in the odds of any team this week.
