Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Presented by GMC
Everyone has their own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them take computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do just that.
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Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams.
numberFire's NFL Power Rankings
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 4-1 | 12.08 | 1 | 0 | 97.3% | 2.36 |
| Buccaneers | 3-2 | 8.33 | 2 | 0 | 92.4% | 2.39 |
| Chiefs | 4-1 | 6.63 | 3 | 1 | 93.5% | 1.74 |
| Eagles | 5-0 | 6.30 | 4 | -1 | 98.4% | 2.39 |
| Ravens | 3-2 | 4.05 | 5 | 6 | 82.3% | 1.68 |
| Cowboys | 4-1 | 3.74 | 6 | 0 | 85.1% | 2.08 |
| 49ers | 3-2 | 3.57 | 7 | 3 | 79.9% | 1.69 |
| Packers | 3-2 | 3.06 | 8 | -3 | 73.4% | 1.63 |
| Bengals | 2-3 | 2.82 | 9 | -2 | 48.9% | 1.93 |
| Chargers | 3-2 | 2.23 | 10 | -1 | 65.2% | 2.10 |
| Dolphins | 3-2 | 1.74 | 11 | -3 | 65.6% | 2.03 |
| Vikings | 4-1 | 1.27 | 12 | 0 | 83.7% | 1.64 |
| Rams | 2-3 | 1.08 | 13 | 0 | 47.8% | 1.41 |
| Cardinals | 2-3 | 0.28 | 14 | 3 | 17.7% | 1.67 |
| Jaguars | 2-3 | 0.24 | 15 | -1 | 32.6% | 1.75 |
| Raiders | 1-4 | 0.14 | 16 | 0 | 21.7% | 1.75 |
| Broncos | 2-3 | 0.03 | 17 | -2 | 27.8% | 1.52 |
| Saints | 2-3 | -0.41 | 18 | -1 | 25.1% | 1.40 |
| Patriots | 2-3 | -0.63 | 19 | 2 | 25.5% | 1.74 |
| Giants | 4-1 | -1.52 | 20 | 3 | 51.3% | 1.39 |
| Browns | 2-3 | -1.75 | 21 | -2 | 19.9% | 1.18 |
| Titans | 3-2 | -2.15 | 22 | -2 | 44.5% | 1.45 |
| Steelers | 1-4 | -3.83 | 23 | 4 | 4.8% | 0.57 |
| Commanders | 1-4 | -3.88 | 24 | -2 | 7.3% | 1.27 |
| Falcons | 2-3 | -4.23 | 25 | 3 | 14.0% | 1.08 |
| Colts | 2-2-1 | -4.27 | 26 | -1 | 48.8% | 1.32 |
| Jets | 3-2 | -4.29 | 27 | 4 | 18.0% | 0.97 |
| Bears | 2-3 | -4.54 | 28 | -2 | 7.9% | 1.05 |
| Panthers | 1-4 | -4.55 | 29 | -5 | 3.2% | 0.86 |
| Seahawks | 2-3 | -6.66 | 30 | 0 | 5.7% | 0.87 |
| Lions | 1-4 | -7.74 | 31 | -2 | 6.9% | 0.54 |
| Texans | 1-3-1 | -8.60 | 32 | 0 | 3.5% | 0.62 |
The top four remains the same this week; only the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles shuffled around in the three and four slots.
There was a lot of shakeup in the bottom half of last week's second tier.
The Green Bay Packers fell from 5th to 8th, the Dallas Cowboys stayed at 6th, the Cincinnati Bengals fell from 7th to 9th, the Miami Dolphins fell from 8th to 11th, the Los Angeles Chargers fell from 9th to 10th, the San Francisco 49ers climbed from 10th to 7th, and the Baltimore Ravens climbed from 11th to 6th. What this indicates is that there isn't a lot of certainty outside the top four, and that will set us up for a very fun season.
That does mean, of course, that the Baltimore Ravens moved into the top five after a nERD increase of 1.67 points. That was the largest ranking change of any team in the NFL. Baltimore's clutch win this week also came over division rivals, the Bengals. The Ravens' playoff odds now sit at 82.3% (seventh-highest odds in the NFL) despite just a 3-2 record. Four of their next five opponents rank outside the top half in nERD: at the New York Giants (20th), versus the Cleveland Browns (21st), at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2nd), at the New Orleans Saints (18th), and versus the Carolina Panthers (29th).
This does mean, though, that the playoff race is taking shape already. The top 11 teams in playoff odds have a 65.2% chance or better to qualify for a run for the Super Bowl. There are also 16 teams in the league with lower than a 33.3% playoff chance.
For that reason, big playoff odds shifts are notable this week.
The largest increase easily belonged to the Giants (from 38.3% to 51.3%, a 23.0-point improvement). With only 4.0% division odds, they'll need to watch the wild card race. Their schedule is incredibly up-and-down the rest of the way; other than the Jacksonville Jaguars (15th), they play teams either inside the top 12 in nERD (five games) or outside the top 24 in nERD (six games). If they take care of business in the winnable spots, a playoff berth is very reasonable.
Speaking of the Jaguars, they suffered the largest playoff odds decrease of the week (64.4% to 32.6%, a 31.8-point dip). The Los Angeles Rams also fell below 50.0% this week after a 20.8-percentage-point plummet in the playoff odds column.
