5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 5
There isn't a better starting point for unearthing values for FanDuel NFL contests than numberFire's projection tool. Users can easily view the entire player pool or sort by position to see statistical projections for all players in FanDuel's player pool. Additionally, the column for value provides a sortable way to view which players offer the most bang for your buck, showing users the player's point-per thousand dollars of salary.
But, of course, factors such as a team's implied total and game's spread are integral for decision-making. Fortunately, numberFire patrons can peruse the Heat Map for that information and a wealth of other goodies.
Nevertheless, other considerations help inform my selection. So, this is your home for finding the five FanDuel values I'm targeting weekly for their main slate. Check this week's picks below.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,600)
Trevor Lawrence had a forgettable game in Week 4 against the loaded Philadelphia Eagles in the rain. Thus, I'm willing to give him a pass for his struggles. Further, I love the offense Doug Pederson is running with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
According to Football Outsiders, the Jaguars have played at the fifth-fastest situation-neutral pace. In addition, they've attempted 74 passes and 54 rushes with non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this season. So, it's a pass-happy and uptempo offense. Lawrence was also playing well within it through the first three games.
According to StatHead, among quarterbacks with at least 10 pass attempts in Week 1 through Week 3, Lawrence was seventh in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.36 ANY/A), sandwiched between studs Justin Herbert (7.24 ANY/A) and Josh Allen (7.75 ANY/A). The second-year quarterback also had 772 passing yards, six touchdowns, and only one interception.
Fortunately, he has a bounce-back matchup this week. According to our power rankings, the Houston Texans have the 10th-worst pass defense. Finally, according to the numberFire heat map, the Jaguars are tied for the fifth-highest implied total (25.25) on FanDuel's main slate. Thus, Jacksonville's scoring outlook is good. Ergo, Lawrence's fantasy-scoring potential is significant.
Jeff Wilson, RB, San Francisco 49ers ($6,500)
Volume is the king at running back. Thankfully, Jeff Wilson has been a workhorse. Wilson has had a 58.82 percent snap share this year. Additionally, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Wilson has run 55 routes, Kyle Juszczyk has run 50, and Jordan Mason has only two routes this season. So, again, Wilson has been a feature back.
He's also parlayed his playing time into touches, touching the ball at least 15 times in the previous three games. Wilson has also exceeded 100 scrimmage yards twice and amassed 74 yards and a touchdown in Week 4. So, he hasn't provided the San Francisco 49ers a reason to change his workload.
San Francisco is a 6.5-point favorite this week against the Carolina Panthers. So, Wilson should have a good game script for toting the rock. Finally, according to the numberFire projection algorithm, Wilson has the fifth-highest value score -- the measure of points per $1,000 of salary -- at running back on Week 5's FanDuel main slate.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots ($6,000)
Rhamondre Stevenson is also popping out as a value in our projections, tying for the sixth-highest value score among running backs. The second-year back has surged ahead of Damien Harris in an excellent one-two backfield, playing at least 55 percent of the New England Patriots' snaps in three straight games, clearing 60 percent twice.
Stevenson has also had a decided advantage over Harris in passing-game usage. In the previous three games, Stevenson has run 61 routes and had nine receptions for 55 yards on 12 targets. Comparatively, Harris has run only 26 routes and had five receptions for 19 yards on six targets.
Meanwhile, the rushing split has only narrowly favored Harris. Harris has had 44 rush attempts for 198 yards, three touchdowns, five missed tackles forced, and 3.14 yards after contact (YCO/A) per attempt since Week 2, per PFF. However, Stevenson has had 35 attempts for 186 yards, one touchdown, 10 missed tackles forced, and 4.57 YCO/A. So, Stevenson has a stranglehold on the passing-down work with a near 50/50 rushing workload split.
As a result, Stevenson is game-script proof. Nonetheless, the game script should be good, and the matchup is great. First, the Patriots are 3.5-point favorites at home. Second, The Detroit Lions have the worst rush defense. So, Stevenson is an exciting value option with a useful floor and high ceiling.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints ($6,900)
According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Chris Olave is the 2022 leader for intended air yards. However, that doesn't tell the whole story. He has 699 intended air yards, 188 more than the second-highest mark. Further, only two players have more than 500 intended air yards.
Olave has also soaked up targets. The rookie has the 17th-highest target share (25.9 percent) this season. Obviously, a combination of air yards and targets is dreamy for fantasy production. The combination has led to 5.3 receptions and 83.8 receiving yards per game, and one touchdown for Olave.
Thankfully, Olave also appears to be quarterback-proof. Olave has shined with Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton. Therefore, the unclear quarterback situation for the New Orleans Saints isn't a concern. Additionally, the matchup is mouthwatering this week. According to our metrics, the Seattle Seahawks have the worst pass defense in 2022. Seattle was carved up by Jared Goff and his collection of backup wideouts last week. So, Olave is equipped to punish the Seahawks even further.
The oddsmakers and betting public are anticipating the Saints to light up the scoreboard this week. So, they have a fantasy-friendly implied total of 25.50 points, the fourth-highest on this week's main slate. Finally, Olave has the sixth-highest value score for a wide receiver with a sub-$7,000 salary. So, he's an outstanding value pick.
Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills ($5,000)
Sadly, the Buffalo Bills were dealt a few blows to their receiving corps last week. First, Jamison Crowder suffered a broken ankle. Second, Isaiah McKenzie was concussed on a vicious hit. As a result, McKenzie didn't participate in Wednesday's practice, casting doubt on his availability this week.
WR Isaiah McKenzie (concussion) did not participate during the media viewing portion of practice. He was in Bills garb but was not in pads like the rest of the team.
— Joe Buscaglia (@JoeBuscaglia) October 5, 2022
So, Khalil Shakir is the next man up if McKenzie is out. Per PFF, the rookie wide receiver played 11 passing snaps in Week 4, running 10 routes and aligning in the slot eight times. Further, Shakir had two receptions for 23 yards on two targets, amassing 15 yards after the catch. His first catch was behind the line of scrimmage on second and 10 last week, and he turned upfield to convert a first down.
Bills rookie WR Khalil Shakir’s first career reception is a big one for Buffalo pic.twitter.com/r3tXt6yJIK
— The Draft Network (@TheDraftNetwork) October 2, 2022
Shakir was productive in his final collegiate season and during the preseason. According to PFF, out of 251 FBS wide receivers targeted at least 50 times in 2021, Shakir was 28th with 2.83 yards per route run (Y/RR). Then, Shakir was fifth out of 97 receivers targeted at least eight times in the preseason with 3.51 Y/RR.
Will his prior success lead to immediate results in the NFL? That's not a guarantee. Still, it's ideal to be attached to Buffalo's main-slate-high implied total (30.25 points) and Allen's rocket arm. So, Shakir is a fun tournament value pick if McKenzie is out.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.