NFL Betting: Target the Under on Ryan Tannehill's Season-Long Touchdown Prop
The NFL season is right around the corner and the anticipation is starting to build. Teams are beginning to report to training camps in the coming days or weeks, and there's plenty to be excited about.
A new season means a new set of season-long NFL player props to take a look at on FanDuel Sportsbook. There are a number of markets posted on the FanDuel Sportsbook, including season-long leaders, individual player awards, and player props.
Can we find value in any of these markets? That's what I'm here to discuss, so let's jump into a season-long player prop for the 2022 NFL season.
Ryan Tannehill Under 22.5 Passing Touchdowns (-112)
Ryan Tannehill's passing touchdown prop is a bit too rich for my blood, so I'm going with the under.
The Tennessee Titans are one of many teams that underwent a number of changes in the offseason. First off, they traded star wide receiver, A.J. Brown, to the Philadelphia Eagles for two draft picks. They then used one of the picks to select wide receiver Treylon Burks from Arkansas.
A whirlwind of moves that has their wide receiver room in total flux.
Oh, not to mention the fact they drafted quarterback Malik Willis in the third round of the NFL Draft. A team spending draft capital on a highly-touted quarterback is never an encouraging sign for the current quarterback -- Tannehill.
What does this all mean for Tannehill? What does this mean for the Titans' offense in 2022?
First, let's take a look back at what Tannehill did in 2021. He ended with 21 passing touchdowns, which was 16th in the league, and he averaged just 0.07 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, which was 22nd among quarterbacks with at least 100 passes. The league average last season was 0.10 for Passing NEP per drop back.
Tannehill had A.J. Brown and Julio Jones -- albeit, not fully healthy -- and was worse than the league average.
This season, we could be seeing much of the same from Tannehill, especially considering the downgrade among the wide receivers. PFF has the Titans' wide receiver corp ranked 26th this season, a less than encouraging sign for Tannehill and his overall production.
Due to the lack of skill, lack of continuity from year to year, and lack of experience among the wide receivers, would we be surprised if the Titans lean more on the running game this season? After all, they had the second-highest (48.78%) rushing play percentage last year.
Herein lies the final point. Derrick Henry is back from his foot injury and ready for the 2022 NFL season. Henry led the NFL in rushing yards in 2019 and 2020, which is where he is projected to land this season.
numberFire's 2022 NFL projections have Henry going for 2054.28 rushing yards and 14.15 touchdowns. That rushing projection is the highest in the league and over 200 yards more than the player in second -- Jonathan Taylor -- last year's rushing yards leader.
When we wrap all of this up and put a bow on it, the path for Tannehill to the over on 22.5 passing touchdowns is a difficult one. The Titans' wide receivers are a mixed bunch that doesn't inspire confidence, and the return of Henry should push them to a run-first offense.
Under 22.5 passing touchdowns for Ryan Tannehill is the play this year.