NFL Betting: Mike Evans' Season-Long Receiving Prop Is Too Low
The NFL season is right around the corner and the anticipation is starting to build. Teams are beginning to report to training camps in the coming days or weeks, and there's plenty to be excited about.
A new season means a new set of season-long NFL player props to take a look at on FanDuel Sportsbook. There are a number of markets posted on the FanDuel Sportsbook, including season-long leaders, individual player awards, and player props.
Can we find value in any of these markets? That's what I'm here to discuss, so let's jump into a season-long player prop for the 2022 NFL season.
Mike Evans Over 1050.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
There are a number of different factors that should help push Mike Evans towards the over on his season-long receiving yards prop, so let's jump in.
The Buccaneers' offseason had plenty of twists and turns, which is putting it lightly. It started with Tom Brady retiring after an illustrious 21-year career in the NFL. A mere 40 days later, Brady unretired and returned to the Buccaneers for the coming season(s). Next, Rob Gronkowski retired -- for the second time -- although, there is some speculation it isn't permanent.
There is also some uncertainty around the status of Chris Godwin as he recovers from ACL surgery. Godwin suffered the knee injury in Week 15 of last season, had surgery in the offseason, and, according to reports, "could be ready for Week 1."
In the event that Godwin is not ready to go in Week 1, the Buccaneers would be rolling out Mike Evans and Russell Gage as their top two wide receivers, with Tyler Johnson, Breshad Perriman, and Cyril Grayson Jr. as the depth options. Cameron Brate would be the starting tight end following Gronk's retirement and O.J. Howard signing with the Buffalo Bills.
If I haven't made it evidently clear by now, I'll recap. Mike Evans is the clear number one receiving option for Tom Brady, full stop.
This shouldn't come as a surprise because Evans was fantastic last season -- as he has been for multiple seasons.
In 2012, Evans finished with 1.00 Receiving Net Expected Points (NEP) per target. That was tied for number one in the league alongside Ja'Marr Chase among wide receivers who had at least 100 targets. Evans also finished with 112.82 Receiving NEP, putting him as the seventh-best wide receiver in the league.
The passing game has been the calling card for the Buccaneers since Tom Brady arrived in 2020. In the past two seasons, the Buccaneers finished 10th and 1st in passing play percentage.
2022 Season Projections
numberFire's 2022 NFL projections have Mike Evans going for 1,305.45 yards, 152.88 targets, 94.87 receptions, and 12.03 touchdowns.
That projection puts Evans 255 yards over his season-long prop of 1,050.5 receiving yards. Given the uncertainty among the Buccaneers' wide receivers, Evans is THE standout option and has a clear path to not only go over 1,000 receiving yards for the ninth straight season but hit the over on his season-long prop.