NFL Betting: Najee Harris Will Cruise Past His Season-Long Rushing Yards Prop
The NFL season is right around the corner and the anticipation is starting to build. Teams are beginning to report to training camps in the coming days or weeks, and there's plenty to be excited about.
A new season means a new set of season-long NFL player props to take a look at on FanDuel Sportsbook. There are a number of markets posted on the FanDuel Sportsbook, including season-long leaders, individual player awards, and player props.
Can we find value in any of these markets? That's what I'm here to discuss, so let's jump into a season-long player prop for the 2022 NFL season.
Najee Harris Over 1120.5 Total Rushing Yards (-112)
Steelers star running back Najee Harris has a big season ahead of him -- and a rushing prop worth betting on.
There's no doubt the Steelers are going to look different this season on offense. Long-time starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger announced his retirement after the 2021 season, ending an 18-year run with the team. The Steelers then signed quarterback, Mitchell Trubisky and drafted Kenny Pickett.
Last season, the Steelers' offense was in the bottom half of the league for the most points scored (349), had a 0.00 team Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry (21st in the league), and had a 38.9% rushing success rate (29th). They were bad on offense last year; there's no other way to put it.
Harris himself held a 0.01 Rushing NEP per carry, which was 30th in the league among running backs with at least 100 carries. He also posted a 40.39% Rushing Success Rate, which was 38th in the same criteria.
Despite all of this, Harris managed to pile up 1,200 rushing yards (4th-most in the league) on 307 carries (2nd-most) -- good for a very modest 3.9 yards per carry.
Harris posted monster numbers in spite of a very bad offense around him, which may not be all that different this season.
2022 Season Projections
numberFire's 2022 NFL projections have Najee Harris going for 1,317.26 rushing yards, 315.42 rushing attempts, and 9.12 rushing touchdowns.
With the uncertainty around the Steelers' quarterback situation, seeing them lean on their rushing game won't be a surprise.
Steelers' head coach, Mike Tomlin, was quoted during the offseason in regards to Harris saying, "he's going to have to be a bell cow for us. If this train is going anywhere in 2022, he's going to be a major component of it, and he's capable."
Whether you want to buy into offseason 'coach speak' or not, it's clear Harris is going to be a key part of the Steelers' offense. He has a defined role, the support of the coach, and a very strong projection that is well clear of his rushing prop.
With all of this considered, I'm betting on over 1,120.5 rushing yards for Najee Harris this season without a second thought.