Super Bowl XLIX Prop Bets: Over/Unders, the Coin Toss, and More
Super Bowl Sunday is a tradition unlike any other, and that's especially true for the Vegas bookmakers, as billions of dollars of bets will be made on the game and all of its props.
You can wager on the coin toss and the National Anthem, but our projections really only have input on the lines of the on-field variety.
If you want our official stance on placing a wager, then check out our game projection page, but here are some of the most intriguing prop bets according to our projections, which are available for free.
Total Passing Attempts - Tom Brady
Total Interceptions - Tom Brady
Over 1.5 (+200)
Under 1.5 (-250)
Our algorithms have Brady pegged for 0.98 interceptions on Sunday, which leaves some wiggle room to stay under this particular over/under.
Total Passing Yards - Russell Wilson
This is one with which our algorithms disagree. They project only 173.05 passing yards for Russell Wilson against the Patriots, who boasted the fourth-best pass defense this regular season, according to our metrics.
Total Rushing Yards - Russell Wilson
Total Rushing Attempts - Russell Wilson
I'm sure you were curious about Wilson's rushing projection -- I was, too -- but it looks like the math is predicting the under for both of these props regarding Wilson's rushing, too. Projected for 34.07 yards, Wilson, per the math, will fall short of this over/under, and with just 5.22 attempts projected, Wilson would also hit the under.
Will Bill Belichick smile during the game on camera?
Has Belichick ever smiled? After all the deflation talk, expect Belichick to be as stone-faced as ever and take the favorite.
Total Rushing Yards - LeGarrette Blount
Total Rushing Attempts - LeGarrette Blount
Our algorithms have LeGarrette Blount slotted for 15.28 rushing attempts and 59.75 yards, which would mean he'd barely miss out on the yardage over and eke out the over for attempts, but with such a narrow margin, it's a very tough call, which is the case for a lot of the straight-up player props.
Total Rushing Yards - Marshawn Lynch
Marshawn Lynch made quite the spectacle on Media Day, but our math is a little more skeptical of his yardage total in the big game. At a solid 78.93 yards, we project Lynch to be the lead rusher in the game but to hit the under on this one even though the Patriots finished the regular season ranked just 17th in run defense, per our metrics.
How long will it take Idina Menzel to sing the US National Anthem?
Over/Under 2 minutes 1 second
The over/under is set right about what the average Anthem has been over the past nine years, but only three of those nine have actually been over two minutes -- Jennifer Hudson's 3-minute, 10-second Anthem before Super Bowl XLIII really skews things. Don't expect Idina to get Frozen on her long notes. The under looks good.
Who will have more Tackles & Assists?
Jamie Collins +1
Bobby Wagner -1
Let's give the offensive side a rest and check out some defensive numbers. Our projections have Jamie Collins slated as the lead tackler in the game at 6.43. Bobby Wagner is projected for 4.58 tackles. Collins is the underdog in this prop, and our math doesn't agree with that.
Total Tackles & Assists - Devin McCourty
Total Tackles & Assists - Darrelle Revis
We also have Devin McCourty's tackle total pegged at 5.26, so he should be able to best his over/under set at 4.5. It's a similar case for Darrelle Revis, who our projections have at 3.43 tackles, which would hit the over.
Total Receiving Yards - Danny Amendola
Total Receptions - Danny Amendola
Danny Amendola might be a crucial part of the Patriots gameplan while Seattle focuses on Rob Gronkowski. Amendola's prop lines are pretty low, and so are our projections. Still, at a projected total of 2.71 receptions and 26.03 yards, Amendola is projected to hit the overs on each.
Total Tackles & Assists - Earl Thomas
Total Tackles & Assists - Richard Sherman
As is the case with McCourty and Revis, two players we have to hit the over on tackles (and assists) will be found in the secondary. Both Earl Thomas (6.13) and Richard Sherman (4.07) are projected to hit the over on these over/unders.
Who will have more Receiving Yards in the game?
Brandon LaFell -10.5
Jermaine Kearse +10.5
How many successful field goals will be kicked in the game?
Kickers! Both Steven Hauschka and Stephen Gostkowski were in the top five in field goals made this season (31 and 35, respectively), and Gostkowski led the league. But what do our algorithms predict? 1.62 field goals for Hauschka and 1.34 for Gostkowski, a total of 2.96, making the under quite intriguing.
The most important prop of all: the coin toss. The Seahawks are 3-0 in the Super Bowl with the coin toss, and the Patriots are just 2-5 in Super Bowl tosses and just 1-4 during the Tom Brady era. Not only that, but the NFC is 17-3 in the last 20 tosses and have reeled off 14 straight. But it's not all a sure thing for Seattle: the Pats have won two of those three AFC tosses, making this seemingly surefire bet more of a coin flip than a lock.