4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 18
Stacks fuel upside in FanDuel contests. To that point, colleague Brandon Gdula took a deep dive into hit rates and correlation for stacks. It's worth a read.
Every week, I'll lay out my four favorite stacks in this space. Here are the stacks I'm honing in on this week.
The Seattle Seahawks hung 51 points on the Detroit Lions last week, their third time scoring 30 or more points across their last five games. Sadly, the overall season hasn't gone as planned for the Seahawks, but they have an opportunity to play spoiler for the Arizona Cardinals in a possible fast-tempo game.
According to Football Outsiders, Seattle plays at the 10th-fastest situation neutral pace. Arizona plays faster, ranking seventh. In addition, after an offseason of fence-mending with Russell Wilson, it's not out of the question the Seahawks move on and rebuild. I tend to stay away from narrative-driven picks, but the situation erases any concerns I have about an abbreviated start for Wilson while some quarterbacks on playoff-bound squads might get the early hook in Week 18.
Wilson was sharp and efficient last week, passing for 236 yards and four touchdowns on just 29 pass attempts, adding six rushes for 24 yards. The primary beneficiary of Wilson's rock-solid game was D.K. Metcalf. He hauled in six of nine targets for 63 yards and three touchdowns. However, Tyler Lockett was mostly quiet, securing all three of his targets for only 24 yards and a touchdown while tossing in a seven-yard run. Regardless, Lockett has tasty underlying numbers and blow-up potential, making him an attractive stack partner with Wilson and a pivot away from point-chasing gamers who flock to Metcalf.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Lockett has had the fifth-most intended air yards (1,622). The dynamic receiver also has a solid 22.8 percent target share, resulting in per-game averages of 4.5 receptions and 71.8 receiving yards with six touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference. Lockett has blown up for five games with at least 100 receiving yards, reaching pay dirt in three of those games.
Devin Singletary is another carryover from the aforementioned value plays piece. He's emerged as a legitimate workhorse back. "Motor" has totaled more than 75 scrimmage yards in four straight games, hauling in 12 receptions and scoring four touchdowns in that span.
He has a drool-inducing matchup this week. Per Pro Football Reference, the New York Jets cede the most FanDuel points per game (29.5) to running backs this year -- a notable 3.8 points more than anyone else. According to our metrics, Gang Green is the fourth-worst rush defense.
The Buffalo Bills are the slate's biggest favorites (-16.5 points) with the second-highest implied total (29.00). The game script is optimal for Singletary being force-fed the ball and the Bills' defense teeing off on the Jets. The defense should have ample opportunities to force turnovers with the Jets likely being forced into catch-up mode.
According to Pro Football Focus, out of 31 quarterbacks with at least 350 dropbacks, Zach Wilson is tied for the seventh-highest turnover-worthy-play percentage (3.9 percent). Wilson also has the fourth-highest sack rate (9.0 percent). The Bills, meanwhile, are tied for the third-most turnovers forced (30) and have recorded 33 sacks. Our algorithm projects the Bills to lead all defenses in scoring with the highest value score -- a measure of fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jonathan Taylor might be the chalkiest player on FanDuel's main slate. The Indianapolis Colts must win this week to assure themselves a playoff berth. As a result, Taylor should command his usual gaudy touch total in a sublime matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The second-year back has at least 20 rush attempts in six of his last seven contests -- including four straight -- rumbling for more than 100 yards each time he's hit that threshold.
Taylor is second in rushing yards per game (108.4), and he leads the way in rush attempts (317) and rushing touchdowns (18). JT adds 2.3 receptions and 21.4 receiving yards per game with two total touchdown receptions for good measure. Additionally, according to Pro Football Focus, among running backs with at least 75 rush attempts, Taylor is third in yards after contact per attempt (3.83), tied for first in missed tackles forced (60), and first in runs of 10-plus yards (48).
Indy is a 15.5-point favorite with the highest implied total (29.75) on the slate. Taylor should eat to his heart's content against Jacksonville. They are the second-worst rush defense by our numbers. This is a smash spot for Taylor. We project him as the slate's RB1 and rate him as the top point-per-dollar play among backs.
On the flip side, I like Laquon Treadwell as a game-stack partner. The former first-round pick has surprisingly ascended to the top of the heap in Jacksonville's passing attack. He's another guy I highlighted in my values plays article, and if I like Treadwell as a one-off value play, I love him as a stacking partner with Taylor.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
D'Onta Foreman makes it four players in this week's stacking article who are carryovers from the value plays piece. Frankly, with many playoff squads likely resting players, I am going to have a tight cluster of guys in my player pool on FanDuel's main slate.
The Tennessee Titans are playing for the top seed in the AFC and are 10.0-point favorites against the Houston Texans. The Titans have plenty of incentive to play to win, and they should lean on their running game to get the job done.
Foreman has staked claim to top ball-carrier duties in the absence of Derrick Henry, rushing for more than 100 yards in three of his last five outings and scoring touchdowns in the two outlier games. Since Week 12, Foreman has averaged 91.0 scrimmage yards per game and run for three touchdowns.
Brandin Cooks is an excellent bring-back target if the game goes according to the expectations of betting markets. He's a target hog and the apple of Davis Mills' eye. Mills has chucked the pigskin 361 times this year, and Cooks has had a 25.8 percent target share and team-leading 66 receptions, 710 receiving yards, 960 air yards, and five touchdown receptions on those pass attempts.
The matchup is excellent for Cooks as the Titans yield the second-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers.
Cooks is a darling in our projections, coming in as the WR12.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.