Fantasy Football: 3 Things We Learned in Week 16

Perhaps more than anything, fantasy football is a game of adjustments. Season-long fantasy doesn't end at the draft, and smart managers learn to take the trends and data that each week of games offers and apply it to their roster decisions moving forward.

This weekly piece will look at trends from the previous slate of games and determine which trends in snaps, usage, and matchups are actionable moving forward. Let's dive in and look at some interesting pieces of information from Week 16.

Sony Michel Will Lead You to a Championship

For one of my fantasy teams a year ago, it was PPR hero Jamison Crowder and his seven catches for 92 yards and a score that led me to a coveted championship. I'm sure you have had similar experiences; the unsung hero who comes in at just the right time to lead you to a title.

This year, that player for many fantasy managers will be Sony Michel.

With Darrell Henderson officially out for the remainder of the regular season, Michel should continue to have the lion's share of the work for the Los Angeles Rams as they close our their playoff run. Cam Akers being activated this week was a mostly procedural move so he can make the playoff roster, but he should not take away meaningful work in Week 17.

We have seen Michel succeed in these circumstances several times this year, but Week 16 was a reminder of what the Rams want Michel to be when he is a feature back. He rushed 27 times, saw four targets, and amassed 135 total yards plus a score for 20 fantasy points. But going forward, it's the elite red zone usage that should give Michel's managers confidence for championship week.

Since Week 14, only Jonathan Taylor (20) has seen more red zone rush attempts than Michel's 14. The Rams have committed to pounding the ball near the end zone, and their total rushing play percentage is up to 45% over the last three weeks when it sits at just 40% on the season. And now that new rushing trend gets a delightful matchup with the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens' defense is so atrocious right now, beyond just giving up an eye-popping 575 yards to the Bengals on Sunday. They allow the third-most yards per game to their opponents in the last three weeks (404 yards), and they trail only the Houston Texans in yards per play allowed in that span (6.4).

We often throw around the word "league-winner" too loosely, but with his performance in the semifinals last week and the opportunity he has in Week 17, Michel can be just that.

Dallas Goedert Will Be a Top-5 Tight End in 2022

Dallas Goedert finishing as a top-five tight end in 2022 means one of the following must fall out: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts and a healthy (hopefully) Darren Waller. It's easy to assume one will get injured again or another will have a disappointing year, but even if all are at their peak performance and usage, Goedert has just a strong a case as any.

We know already that the usage stats are elite. Despite playing half his season alongside Zach Ertz, Goedert is ninth among all tight ends in target share this season at 17%. That number jumps up to 24.5% in the last four weeks, which trails only Kittle and Andrews. Entering Week 16, Goedert was also 10th among tight ends in air yards share.

But the knock against Goedert is not usually his usage, it's on the makeup of his team's offense. The Philadelphia Eagles have such a small passing pie that it dings Goedert's outlook. It is true that the Eagles are the most run-heavy offense in the NFL, with 51.2% of their offensive plays going as a run -- 56.6% in the last three games.

In this offense, Goedert has seen 69 targets, which ranks only 14th among tight ends. But his Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) per target is far and away the best at the position. In fact, Goedert is the only player at the position adding more than one expected point to his team's total per target this year (1.01, with second being 0.89).

Where Goedert benefits in this low-volume pass attack is that a full 48% of targets the past three weeks have gone to just two players: Goedert and DeVonta Smith. If the Eagles' target tree is that narrow again heading in 2022, Goedert can be expected to put up top-five numbers out of the shadow of Ertz.

Jaylen Waddle Leaps Up the Dynasty Wide Receiver Charts

It's quite laughable to go look at the fantasy box scored from the Monday night game between the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints. Predictably, the Miami D/ST led all scorers with 25 points, but then just one other player managed to score more than 11 points in half-PPR scoring: Jaylen Waddle.

At times, Waddle looked like the only competent offensive player for either team last night, but it was just a further indication of how strong a season he is having.

At 96 grabs, he is just five shy of tying Anquan Boldin for the rookie receptions record, and he now ranks sixth on the year with those 96 catches. But it's been more than just receptions. Since Week 11, Waddle ranks fourth in PPR formats in fantasy points per game. That's right: Kupp, Adams, Jefferson and Jaylen Waddle.

It raises the question for keeper and dynasty formats, how many receivers would you actually want over Waddle? For my money, I have settled on no more than five. Give me Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs and Ja'Marr Chase ahead of him. Tee Higgins is debatable, but frankly Higgins and Chase could eat into each other's production for years to come.

For the foreseeable future, Waddle will be tied to Tua Tagovailoa, who loves throwing underneath, which perfectly suits Waddle. The only question now is how high will Waddle rise in redraft leagues next year. Another couple of games like what we have seen of late, and he could find his way into the third or fourth round in PPR formats for 2022.