NFL Week 15 Power Rankings: The Browns Are Hanging On
Everyone has his or her own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them are computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do just that.
Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams after 13 weeks.
numberFire's NFL Power Rankings
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 10-3 | 11.52 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.6 |
| Cardinals | 10-3 | 10.37 | 2 | -1 | 100.0% | 2.2 |
| Bills | 7-6 | 9.70 | 3 | 0 | 82.2% | 2.3 |
| Patriots | 9-4 | 8.08 | 4 | 1 | 99.7% | 2.0 |
| Cowboys | 9-4 | 8.04 | 5 | -1 | 100.0% | 2.3 |
| Packers | 10-3 | 6.78 | 6 | 0 | 100.0% | 2.3 |
| Rams | 9-4 | 6.69 | 7 | 0 | 99.4% | 2.2 |
| Chiefs | 9-4 | 6.02 | 8 | 1 | 98.3% | 2.0 |
| Colts | 7-6 | 4.19 | 9 | 2 | 63.2% | 1.5 |
| Chargers | 8-5 | 4.16 | 10 | 0 | 89.5% | 2.1 |
| 49ers | 7-6 | 3.67 | 11 | -3 | 72.9% | 2.3 |
| Saints | 6-7 | 3.23 | 12 | 0 | 40.0% | 1.8 |
| Titans | 9-4 | 1.89 | 13 | 3 | 99.9% | 1.8 |
| Eagles | 6-7 | 1.76 | 14 | -1 | 46.3% | 2.1 |
| Bengals | 7-6 | 1.19 | 15 | 0 | 32.3% | 1.5 |
| Vikings | 6-7 | 0.86 | 16 | -2 | 23.1% | 1.3 |
| Broncos | 7-6 | 0.49 | 17 | 0 | 19.2% | 1.5 |
| Ravens | 8-5 | -1.32 | 18 | 0 | 75.8% | 1.0 |
| Browns | 7-6 | -1.60 | 19 | 1 | 29.4% | 1.3 |
| Seahawks | 5-8 | -2.39 | 20 | 1 | 0.3% | 1.8 |
| Steelers | 6-6 | -3.07 | 21 | 3 | 5.6% | 1.1 |
| Football Team | 6-7 | -3.63 | 22 | 3 | 14.5% | 0.8 |
| Dolphins | 6-7 | -3.95 | 23 | -1 | 1.3% | 1.3 |
| Raiders | 6-7 | -4.43 | 24 | -5 | 3.6% | 0.9 |
| Panthers | 5-8 | -4.59 | 25 | -2 | 0.0% | 0.4 |
| Giants | 4-9 | -5.45 | 26 | 0 | 0.2% | 0.9 |
| Bears | 4-9 | -7.32 | 27 | 0 | 0.1% | 1.1 |
| Falcons | 6-7 | -7.62 | 28 | 0 | 3.2% | 0.9 |
| Jets | 3-10 | -10.92 | 29 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.9 |
| Jaguars | 2-11 | -11.44 | 30 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.2 |
| Lions | 1-11 | -13.53 | 31 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.5 |
| Texans | 2-11 | -15.03 | 32 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.5 |
The top of the NFL is pretty solidified. No team inside the top eight moved more than a single position in our power rankings, and all eight of them have playoff odds of at least 82.2% (the Buffalo Bills holding the low-water mark), and seven of them are at 98.3% or better.
That includes the Kansas City Chiefs, who increased their nERD by 2.32 points -- the single biggest shift of the week. Their nERD now sits at 6.02. That's a pretty key threshold. Since 2012, only 2 of 18 Super Bowl teams had nERD scores below 6.00, and only the Baltimore Ravens (4.80 nERD in the 2012 season) won the Super Bowl with a nERD below that mark.
The largest increase in Super Bowl odds belongs to the Los Angeles Rams (up 2.8 points to 6.4%) after knocking off the Arizona Cardinals (whose 3.5-point drop to 8.9% was the largest Super Bowl odds decrease of the week). Now, despite a top-two nERD, the Cardinals are fifth in Super Bowl odds. They're +1000 to win the Super Bowl on FanDuel Sportsbook.
The biggest single-week boost to playoff odds of any team belonged to the Cleveland Browns. Their odds climbed 18.1 points to 29.4% after a two-point win over the Ravens. Their final schedule is winnable: home against the Las Vegas Raiders (24th in nERD) at the Green Bay Packers (6th), at the Pittsburgh Steelers (21st), and home against the Cincinnati Bengals (15th). They could flip a 7-6 record to a 10-7 mark pretty easily. They're +104 to make the playoffs on FanDuel Sportsbook and -128 to miss.
Coincidentally, the biggest losers from a playoffs odds standpoint came from the AFC North, too: the Ravens (-13.2 points to 75.8%) and the Bengals (-10.4 points to 32.3%). It's fitting that they face one another in Week 16. A home matchup against the Packers awaits the Ravens, and the Bengals travel to play the Denver Broncos (17th) this week.
